11% miss in Q2, but reiterates FY outlook

Attractively priced market leader

Strong insurance outcome and financials

Q2 in line with cons. but with a soft mix

Q2e: near-term ARPU drag, earnings on track

Stronger insurance and profit sharing

Heads-up for Q2-report, 11 July

Strong earnings growth on the cards for Q2e

AUM rebound drives earnings growth

Defence to drive Q2 beat

Norway: Best ideas Q2'25

Insurance trip: 16 insurers in three days

Non-life have price increases > inflation in all markets, most in Norway. Life insurance growth with rapid growth & dividend payments. Prefer ALMB, Sampo, Solid, Tryg among non-life; STB for life

New targets fulfilling our wish list

ROE held back by too-high capital base

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Insurance repricing on track

Q1 PTP before amortisation was NOK1,167m, up 8% YOY, driven by strong growth in Banking and Insurance. While high sales activity had a negative impact on the insurance cost ratio, the combined ratio continued to improve through premium growth of 20% YOY, leaving Storebrand close to the 90–92% target for 2025. We have made fairly limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK149 target price.

Softer operating profit, better financials

Adj PTP +5%/-2%, on better financials, but much weaker op.profit. Softer fee, insurance and opex behind the miss, financials beat. Cons.est.rev -2-4%, stock -2% to 4% on the operating profit miss

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK170.00) - Solid performance

Q1 gross profit and EBIT beat our above-consensus estimates, largely on a higher gross margin offsetting a slightly softer-than-expected top line and more opex than we expected. Furthermore, adjusted for FX losses, underlying earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. In short, we see this setting Atea up to track in line with our above-consensus estimates for 2025–2027 (which we have edged up) as well as multiples expansion. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NO...

Growth: check, margin: check, valuation: check

Storytel (Hold, TP: SEK83.00) - Struggled to live up to expectations

Investors had grown accustomed to strong results after five consecutive quarterly ‘high quality’ beats. However, its Q1 results did not meet MF consensus, which dents the short-term momentum of the story, in our view. We believe Storytel could reverse the negative sentiment at its 15 May CMD, but remain on the sidelines to see if the high bar from consensus is revised. The valuation remains undemanding, in our opinion, as we forecast adj. EBIT growth of 25% YOY in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, an...