Trough valuations and supportive funding

Ample room to grow

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Everything is connected

Geopolitical uncertainty has affected market interest rates and thus the Nordic real estate sector – and we see no near-term fix. The yield gap (risk premium) has remained broadly unchanged in the recent market volatility, meaning interest rates changes explain most of the YTD share price performance – a correlation we expected will continue. The local office rental market remains soft, and we expect the logistics market to follow suit. However, given the deleveraging efforts in recent years and...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

A tenant bankruptcy, a lost rating, more newbuilds and new issues

This week, Castellum lost its seventh-largest tenant after Northvolt declared bankruptcy, Citycon’s IG rating was withdrawn, construction companies continue to start newbuilds (NCC in Finland), Corem announced a lease extension, and Kojamo and Sagax issued new bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.17–5.49% for 2025–2026e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Tough macro

Share prices for the names we cover are down by 7% week-on-week on average following the hike in market interest rates. In other news, February residential prices for Norway and Sweden were published, Skanska announced another large newbuild in Sweden, and Pandox acquired a EUR66m hotel in Cologne, Germany. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.12% for 2025e and 5.43% for 2026e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Better markets and more Q4 results

Positive data points for January were Colliers’ market update showing Nordic commercial real estate transaction volumes were up 17% YOY, while Norwegian residential developer, Union, said house sales improved 52% YOY, although both were from very low bases. Citycon released Q4 results this week, and Skanska announced a new development. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.94% for 2025e and 5.24% for 2026e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Last of the Q4s

Q4 reporting season wrapped up this week, with the last six of the names in the sector we cover releasing their results. In other news, the largest-ever hotel transaction in the Nordics was announced. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.85% for 2025e and 5.22% for 2026e.

Catena (Hold, TP: SEK470.00) - Investment capacity; few prospects

PFPM was 6% below consensus in Q4, while the vacancy remained solid. We reiterate our HOLD, as we consider Catena overcapitalised and are concerned about the lack of attractive investment opportunities, especially since the project market, historically the company’s highest ROI investment, is slow. Also, we believe the valuation looks stretched versus its European logistics peers. We have cut our target price to SEK470 (490) and our 2026-2027e FFOps by 3%.

Valuation looks attractive

Miss on higher net financials

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Tender offer and more Q4 results

After surpassing one-third of the votes in Entra this week, Castellum announced it would present a mandatory offer for all shares in the company. The Q4 reporting season has continued, with several names releasing results. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.61% for 2025e and 5.03% for 2026e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Mixed Q4 results

This week, Fabege, Atrium Ljungberg, Pandox, JM and Peab reported a mixed set of Q4 results. We have HOLD recommendations for all these stocks. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.47% for 2024e and 4.94% for 2025e.