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Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Slow large mining capital decisions

Metso (METSO FH, Buy) - Slow large mining capital decisions (19 pages)

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

The hard rock bustle

Our review of 12 major miners’ guidance suggests 6% YOY capex growth in 2025, with growth project capex up 23%. Copper remains a key investment priority, accounting for c35% of miners’ capex, driven by global megatrends and supply constraints. This is particularly supportive for our BUY names: Metso (32% copper exposure), Epiroc (28%), and FLSmidth (21%), while Sandvik (HOLD) also stands to benefit, although its large metal-cutting tools business reduces its direct copper exposure to 12%.

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie
Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR12.00) - Solid Q4 and outlook

We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EBITA by 2% and our target price to EUR12 (11), and reiterate our BUY. We still view Metso's end-market exposure, financials, dividend yield, and valuation as attractive.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie
Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
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