Our review of 12 major miners’ guidance suggests 6% YOY capex growth in 2025, with growth project capex up 23%. Copper remains a key investment priority, accounting for c35% of miners’ capex, driven by global megatrends and supply constraints. This is particularly supportive for our BUY names: Metso (32% copper exposure), Epiroc (28%), and FLSmidth (21%), while Sandvik (HOLD) also stands to benefit, although its large metal-cutting tools business reduces its direct copper exposure to 12%.
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
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