After a series of negative earnings surprises, the Q1 results exceeded our expectations, mainly on progress in the key Consumer Packaging division. In addition, we found it reassuring that management reiterated that the forestry asset sale is ongoing, with completion expected before end-H1. We have made limited forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and EUR12 target price.
Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...
We reiterate our BUY and EUR11 target price, with only small estimate changes following the Q1 results (which brought stronger orders but softer earnings than we expected). Despite general uncertainties, we continue to view Metso’s end-market exposure, financials and valuation as attractive.
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