ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 01/03/2025

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 03/01/2025

Sligro Food Group N.V. : Inflation- and tobacco-driven sales growth of...

Sligro/3Q24 postview: Déjà vu/HOLD

Following a change in primary analyst, we reiterate our HOLD rating and cut our target price to €12.5. We view Sligro as a recovery in margin play, driving an Adj. EBIT growth CAGR of c.34% over 2023-26F, materially above other listed peers in the sector. We expect this to be driven by a lower amortisation amount after the impairment on its ERP assets, as well as a recovery in gross margin. We note that Sligro's balance sheet offers limited room for inorganic growth or more cash return to shareh...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/18/2024

The recovery in growth in the IT & engineering services sector is undermined by the still mixed macroeconomic climate and the setbacks in the automotive and aerospace sectors. The improvement in sector momentum will therefore be minimal in H2 2024 with a growing decorrelation between the US which should be robust and a stagnating Europe. This leads us to adopt a more cautious approach on companies in our sector (revision to our 2025 growth estimates for 12 companies) and to prefer Acc...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 18/10/2024

La reprise de la croissance du secteur IT & Engineering Services est mise à mal par un contexte macro toujours mitigé et par les déboires des secteurs Auto et Aéro. Ainsi, l’amélioration de la dynamique du secteur sera minimale au S2 2024 et probablement aussi au S1 2025, avec une décorrélation grandissante entre les US qui devraient être solides et une Europe stagnante. Ceci nous amène à adopter une approche plus prudente pour les sociétés de notre secteur (révision de croissance 202...

Sligro Food Group N.V. : Amidst rock-bottom valuation, we stick to our...

>Q3 2024 sales beat expectations on solid Netherlands and weak Belgium - Sligro announced its Q3 2024 sales figures yesterday morning, reporting sales of € 730m. This surpassed both our estimate of € 725m and consensus of €  717m. Within this mix, we observed robust performance in the Netherlands, while Belgium continued to underperform.Excluding tobacco, Netherlands posted 2.8% growth, in line with the market - In the Netherlands, sales for the quart...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/17/2024

We measured the impact of the contribution from Michel Barnier’s exceptional tax on 88 stocks exposed to France. Some 17 of them would experience a (negative) impact on their EPS of more than 4% on average over 2024 and 2025: LDC (-8.3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7.9%), ADP (-7.9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6.9%), Derichebourg (-6.3%), Hermès (-5.6%), Safran (-5.6%), Bouygues (-5.6%), M6 (-5.2%), Thales (-5%), TF1 (-4.9%), Nexans (-4.9%), Vinci (-4.7%), Compagnie des Alpes (...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 17/10/2024

Nous avons mesuré l’impact de la contribution exceptionnelle Barnier sur 88 valeurs exposées à la France. 17 d’entre elles auraient un impact (négatif) sur leurs BPA de plus de 4% en moyenne sur 2024 et 2025 : LDC (-8,3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7,9%) ADP (-7,9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6,9%), Derichebourg (-6,3%), Hermès (-5,6%), Safran (-5,6%), Bouygues (-5,6%), M6 (-5,2%), Thalès (-5%), TF1 (-4,9%), Nexans (-4,9%), Vinci (-4,7%), Compagnie des Alpes (-4,4%), FDJ (-4%). - ...

Sligro Food Group N.V. : Netherlands solid; Belgium weak; outlook reit...

>Netherlands solid; Belgium still weak - Sligro reported Q3 2024 sales of € 730m this morning, or slightly better than our forecast of € 725m. Group organic sales growth was 3.5% in the quarter, ahead of our forecast of 2.8% Consensus (four contributors) was at € 717m. Sales in the Netherlands came in € 10m higher than we had expected at € 636m. Organic sales growth amounted to 5.8% in the Netherlands in the quarter (ABNe: 4.0%). Troubled Belgium reported sales of € 9...

Benelux Morning Notes

Barco: Revenue guidance lowered after 3Q24. IMCD: Relatively large step in Latin America. Sligro: 3Q24 results - “déjà vu”

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/09/2024

A specialist in fluid treatment, Sulzer is a global player present in the energy, natural resources and industrial process markets. With two centuries’ experience, Sulzer offers a solid profile with structural mid-single growth and EBITDA margin improvement to 17% out to 2028 (vs 13.3% in 2023), thanks to the strategic plan based on a favourable product mix and industrial efficiency. Despite the stock’s strong performance, it is trading at a discount of 22% to its historical multiples...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 09/10/2024

Spécialiste du traitement des fluides, Sulzer est un acteur mondial évoluant sur les marchés de l’énergie, des ressources naturelles et des process industriels. Fort de 2 siècles d’expérience, Sulzer offre un profil solide avec une croissance structurelle mid-single digit et une amélioration de la marge d’EBITDA à 17% d’ici 2028 (vs 13.3% en 2023), grâce à son plan stratégique reposant sur un mix-produits favorable et une efficience industrielle. Malgré la forte performance du titre,...

Sligro Food Group N.V. : Excluding tobacco boost, Q3 2024 growth expec...

>Q3 2024 trading update is due on 17 October: 2.8% sales growth expected - Sligro is scheduled to report its Q3 2024 trading update next week on October 17. The updates for the first and third quarters focus solely on sales, and there will be no conference call or webcast with investors and analysts following these updates. We project net sales of €725 million for Q3 2024, indicating an all-organic growth of 2.8%. Specifically, we expect organic sales growth of 4% in ...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 22/07/2024

As a leader in plastic pallet recycling, Cabka currently operates in a rather tough macro environment which we expect to persist, at least for the short term. However we see silver linings in terms of margin expansion, roll back in Capex costs and tight working capital management which will lead to strong free cashflow generation soon. Though with pressure on sales persisting, (we reduce our estimates), Cabka to us is a margin expansion and positive free cashflow generation story, he...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/22/2024

As a leader in plastic pallet recycling, Cabka currently operates in a rather tough macro environment which we expect to persist, at least for the short term. However we see silver linings in terms of margin expansion, roll back in Capex costs and tight working capital management which will lead to strong free cashflow generation soon. Though with pressure on sales persisting, (we reduce our estimates), Cabka to us is a margin expansion and positive free cashflow generation story, he...

Sligro Food Group N.V. : Delivery and market recovery needed for a re-...

>Market growth and Sligro’s sales performance fell short in H1 2024 - Sligro reported H1 2024 organic sales growth of -0.7% for the group, 0.5% in the Netherlands, and 6.9% in Belgium. We conclude that Sligro’s growth trailed market growth, both in the Netherlands, but particularly in Belgium. Moreover, the foodservice markets do not show any signs of a recovery yet, with pressure on volumes continuing in H1 2024. As expected, tobacco sales soared in H1 2024, but Sli...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 18/07/2024

Le marché actions français ne pourra effacer sa décote (50 pb de hausse de la prime de risque) provoquée par la dissolution qu’après l’approbation du budget, à l’automne prochain. D’ici là, un gouvernement technique ou Ensemble + LR pourrait occasionner un léger soulagement, mais d’autres options (alliance partielle du NFP avec Ensemble) sont également possibles, et moins favorables aux actions françaises. La session parlementaire qui s’ouvre aujourd’hui pourrait préciser les rapports...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/18/2024

The French equity market will only be able to erase the discount (50bp increase in risk premium) triggered by the dissolution of the National Assembly once the budget has been approved next autumn. In the meantime, a technocratic government or an Ensemble + LR government could provide some slight respite, but other options (partial alliance of the NFP with Ensemble) are also possible, and less favourable for French equities. The parliamentary session that opens today could clarify the...

Sligro Food Group N.V. : H1 2024 sales weak, EBIT/net profit in line, ...

>Sales below our forecast, but EBIT, net profit and leverage in line with estimates - Sligro reported net sales of € 1,393m, operating profit of € 6m and a net loss of € -1m in H1 2024. We had forecast € 1,418m, € 5m, and € -1m, respectively (consensus: € 1,434m, € 15m and € 8m, respectively. The group ended H1 2024 with net debt (excluding leases) of € 197m and a net debt/EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.96 (ABN: € 181m and 1.8x, respectively). There were no consensus esti...