A director at LEG Immobilien SE bought 1,500 shares at 78.924EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
We are downgrading our recommendation on Vidrala to Underperform from Neutral and set our target price at € 96 (+4% vs previous € 92, DCF: 8.4x implied EV/EBITDA 2024e vs historical average of 9.2x and 6.1x of peer group). While the group will be able to outgrow the industry thanks to the consolidation of Vidroporto in Brazil (16% of the group’s EBITDA) and despite the divestment in Italy (8% of 2023 EBITDA), we believe its organic earnings profile will slightly deteriorate considerin...
We are downgrading our recommendation on Vidrala to Underperform from Neutral and set our target price at € 96 (+4% vs previous € 92, DCF: 8.4x implied EV/EBITDA 2024e vs historical average of 9.2x and 6.1x of peer group). While the group will be able to outgrow the industry thanks to the consolidation of Vidroporto in Brazil (16% of the group’s EBITDA) and despite the divestment in Italy (8% of 2023 EBITDA), we believe its organic earnings profile will slightly deteriorate considerin...
>The direct investment market is still muted today, but we think real estate markets could reignite after seeing the first interest rate cuts - We visited the annual real estate conference MIPIM in Cannes last week. Although the weather was great, the mood in the investment market was still a bit muted. The changes in the real estate market leaves many investor uncertain today. It is still too early to see transactions to go up materially and pricing recovery in the ...
Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...
Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...
>AFFO slightly above expectations and dividend proposal equal to AFFO - This morning LEG published FY 2023 figures that were a shade better than expected overall and confirmed its FY 2024e AFFO guidance of € 180m-200m.Net cold rent increased by +4.4% y-o-y to € 834.3m, in line with our estimate of € 831.2m and the consensus (company compilation) of € 834.0m. Net rental and lease income rose disproportionally, as expected, by +40.7% y-o-y to € 581.6m as FY 2022 wa...
The stabilisation and even slight decline of interest rates in 2024 represents a catalyst for the sector, and leads us to now favour the players that are the best positioned to execute their growth and/or debt reduction strategy. In this context, we prefer Gecina, URW, CTP, Xior and Aedas Homes. We are making 10 rating changes: we upgrade Covivio, NSI, VGP, Patrizia and Xior to Outperform and Altarea, Deutsche Euroshop and SFL to Neutral. We are downgrading Icade and Mercialys to...
La stabilisation des taux d’intérêt, voire éventuellement leur légère baisse courant 2024, constituent un catalyseur pour le secteur et nous amènent à privilégier désormais les acteurs les mieux positionnés pour exécuter leur stratégie de croissance et/ou de désendettement. Dans ce cadre, nous privilégions Gecina, URW, CTP, Xior et Aedas Homes. Nous effectuons 10 changements de recommandation : nous relevons Covivio, NSI, VGP, Patrizia et Xior à Surperformance ainsi que Altarea, ...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
The conflict in the Middle East inevitably results in pressure on fossil fuel markets (oil and gas). Since the withdrawal of gas volumes from Russia, offset to some extent by LNG imports from the US, Australia and Qatar, the risk is that the current geopolitical situation might lead to a second gas shock, which could trigger a fresh rise in gas prices with a knock-on effect on electricity prices. In this scenario, the sensitivity of each group to prices would confirm our sector hierar...
>Reiterated targeted dividend payout and a capital increase ruled out - This week, we went on a road show in Paris with LEG´s CFO and investor relations. Besides elaborating on LEG´s well running rental business, the main topics discussed during the meetings were, amongst others, i/ future price evolvement and its impact on LEG´s portfolio valuation, ii) disposal possibilities and iii/ debt management.LEG reiterated its guidance to pay out 100% of AFFO as well as...
>Better-than-expected initial FY 2024e guidance - LEG published this morning Q3 2023 figures overall broadly in line with expectations with however better-than-estimated FFO I and AFFO as LEG expensed less maintenance for externally procured services than expected in Q3. The company specified its FY 2023e AFFO guidance of € 165m-180m to the upper end of the range and provided an initial AFFO guidance for FY 2024e of € 180m-200m which is ahead our estimate of € 150.0m ...
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