reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term
Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were
- Juan Ros-Padilla
EO FAURECIA SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALCAR CARMAT SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
NEX NEXANS SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
FYB FORMYCON AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TLGO TALGO SA
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
- Bruno Cavalier
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
BAS BASF SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TLGO TALGO SA
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
SIE SIEMENS AG
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: landing aborted - What a difference a week makes. Luxury stocks were trading at a greater than 20% discount vs pre-Covid levels and then they suddenly gained more than 15% in just one week; as a result, they are now trading at close to parity (at a 10% modest discount Hermès aside), no small feat given the recent and visible negative earnings momentum. What happened last week was primarily a re-pricing of the luxury Chinese exposure as authorities ...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: landing aborted - What a difference a week makes. Luxury stocks were trading at a greater than 20% discount vs pre-Covid levels and then they suddenly gained more than 15% in just one week; as a result, they are now trading at close to parity (at a 10% modest discount Hermès aside), no small feat given the recent and visible negative earnings momentum. What happened last week was primarily a re-pricing of the luxury Chinese exposure as authorities ...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
BAS BASF SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TLGO TALGO SA
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
SIE SIEMENS AG
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
- Juan Ros-Padilla
EO FAURECIA SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALCAR CARMAT SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
NEX NEXANS SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
FYB FORMYCON AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TLGO TALGO SA
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #41
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the endless reshuffling of European purchasing alliances among food retai
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/25/2024
Iberdrola is the strategic benchmark in the universe of integrated utilities. Since 2001, the group has pursued a resilient strategy of profitable growth (renewables and networks), geographic expansion and attractive shareholder returns (TSR average annual of 17.9%). But based on the strong share's performance and the low residual upside on our target price of € 15.30, we have lowered our rating to Neutral vs Outperform. - ...
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/09/2024
Iberdrola est la référence stratégique dans le secteur des utilities intégrées. Depuis 2001, le groupe poursuit une stratégie résiliente de croissance rentable (renouvelable et réseaux), d’expansion géographique et de rémunération attractive des actionnaires (TSR annuel moyen 17.9%). Toutefois, la forte performance du titre et le faible potentiel résiduel à notre objectif de cours de 15.3 €, nous amènent à abaisser l’opinion à Neutre vs Surperformance. - ...
- Jean Danjou
Moncler : Accelerated slowdown in Asia, uncertain year-end, greater ca...
>Sharp slowdown in Chinese demand points towards a virtually flat Q3 for the Moncler brand - The group's messages come as no surprise given recent comments from other companies in the sector. The deterioration in consumer spending in China, a slowdown in purchases by Chinese tourists in Japan and trends in Europe impacted by less buoyant tourism this summer have led us to expect weaker growth in Q3 for DTC under the Moncler brand than that seen in Q2, at +8%. On the b...
- Jean Danjou
Moncler : Ralentissement accentué en Asie, fin d’année incertaine, plu...
>La demande chinoise en net ralentissement suggère un T3 quasi flat pour la marque Moncler - Les messages du groupe ne surprennent pas au vu des commentaires récents émanant des autres sociétés du secteur. La détérioration de la consommation en Chine, des achats de touristes chinois au Japon en ralentissement et des tendances en Europe impactées par un tourisme moins contributif cet été nous conduisent à tabler sur une croissance T3 pour le DTC à la marque Moncler plu...
Moncler S.p.A.: 1 director
A director at Moncler S.p.A. sold 7,500,000 shares at 49.800EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #40
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we dig into the strange equation of US purchasing power vs. savings rates. Happy rea
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Fehmi Ben Naamane
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 09/23/2024
CF Alba, the March family holding company, invests in listed and unlisted companies where it identifies strong potential, regardless of the investment horizon. Since 1993, it has achieved a total annualized shareholder return of +11%, beating the EuroStoxx index by 3pp. The company currently trades at a c.50% discount to its NAV which is close to its historical maximum. We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of € 68, representing a discount to its NAV of 35...
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
SQI SQLI SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ELIS ELIS SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NHH NH HOTEL GROUP SA
GRE GRENERGY RENOVABLES
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jerôme Bodin
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
VIV VIVENDI SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
SAN SANOFI
TLX TALANX AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Fehmi Ben Naamane
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 23/09/2024
CF Alba, the March family holding company, invests in listed and unlisted companies where it identifies strong potential, regardless of the investment horizon. Since 1993, it has achieved a total annualized shareholder return of +11%, beating the EuroStoxx index by 3pp. The company currently trades at a c.50% discount to its NAV which is close to its historical maximum. We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of € 68, representing a discount to its NAV of 35...
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
SQI SQLI SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ELIS ELIS SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NHH NH HOTEL GROUP SA
GRE GRENERGY RENOVABLES
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jerôme Bodin
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
VIV VIVENDI SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
SAN SANOFI
TLX TALANX AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Cedric Rossi
Moncler: rope break in China
In view of deteriorating trends over the summer with the Chinese cluster, which has been a key catalyst for Moncler in recent years, we have become conservative with our sales growth trajectory for H2, FY24 and FY25. Lesser contributions from geo- and channel-mix, as well as operating leverage are
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: forecast reset, part 1 - We have now moved to more conservative forecasts for the luxury sector reflecting primarily weaker spending from the Chinese cluster both mainland (a sales decline worse than -10% is now likely for H2 2024) and overseas. From a top-down perspective, we expect muted sales growth for the sector of 1% in Q3 and 2% in Q4 (hence FY 2024 at a meagre +2%) and forecast a moderate 5% growth for FY 2025 (see details below). From a bo...
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