Fully valued, for now

Too much, too fast; down to HOLD. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 9% below cons. TP NOK 174 (200) – P/NAV 1.27x.

Another example of the power of dividends

Minor estimate changes. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 9% above cons. TP NOK 188 (196) – P/NAV 1.11x

13% of market cap in Q1 dividends

EBITDA USD 81m (ABGSCe 76m, cons. 77m). Q2'23 guidance below cons. Q1 and dividends outweighs Q2 IFRS miss, share price up 2-4%.

Rates moving up and for the right reason

Minor estimate changes. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 9% above consensus. TP NOK 188 (196) – P/NAV 1.11x.

2024 begins much like 2023 did

Estimates down due to weaker spot market and vessel sales. ABGSCe in line with cons. for '25. TP NOK 196 (216) – P/NAV 0.81x

Q4 much as expected, Q1 not as bad as feared

Adj. EBITDA USD 46m (ABGSCe 63m, cons. 62m). Q4'23 guidance above cons, below ABGSCe. Market reaction hard to call, likely slightly positive.

LPG shipping is looking better than ever before

US LPG production growth is stronger than expected, making the orderbook for 2024-26 "too low". We thus expect still-elevated LPG shipping rates into 2024-25.

Solid fundamentals, NAV should appreciate

LPG shipping is looking better than ever before. ABGSC '24e EBITDA +47% vs cons. TP NOK 216 (146) – P/NAV 1.05x.

Q3 miss, but "the best is yet to come"

Adj. EBITDA USD 46m (ABGSCe 63m, cons. 62m). Q4'23 guidance above cons, below ABGSCe. Share down 1-3% vs. peers.

Rates on fire, and it can last

"Alarming tightness at the moment" and the Panama Canal seems full. Orderbook remains the main worry, but ~25% of it is ethane carriers. TP NOK 146 (114) - up to BUY (Hold).

Less than 10% upside, down to HOLD

Q3e EBITDA down 28%, minor changes to '24e-'25e. ABGSCe 12% above cons. '24e EBITDA. TP NOK 114 (113) – down to HOLD (Buy).

Beat for Q2, but below ABGSCe for Q3e

Adj. EBITDA USD 52m (ABGSCe 49m, cons. 48m). Q3'23 guidance above cons, below ABGSCe. Share up 1-2% vs. peers.

USD ~70k/day of upside in the VLGC spot rate

LPG arb now indicate s USD ~70k/day upside in VLGC spot rates. Minor adjustments to Q2e, Q3e up. TP NOK 113 (115) – P/NAV 0.80x.

Q1 beat vs cons, run-rate yield of 26%

Adj. EBITDA USD 51m (ABGSCe 51m, cons. 49m). Q2'23 guidance slightly below ABGSCe, above cons. Share up 2-4% vs. peers.

NOK 5/sh of dividends for Q1e

Q1'23e down, Q2'23e up. ABGSCe ’24e net profit 45% above cons. BUY, TP NOK 115 (108) – still attractive at P/NAV 0.67x.

Weak spot rates for Q1'23e, confident 2023 outlook