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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Fully valued, for now

Too much, too fast; down to HOLD. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 9% below cons. TP NOK 174 (200) – P/NAV 1.27x.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
05/31/24 May 31, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Too much, too fast

Q2e up, minor long-term changes. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 1% above cons. TP NOK 226 (215) – P/NAV 1.16x and HOLD (Buy).

05/31/24 May 31, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

20% beat due to IFRS-15

EBITDA USD 184m (15% vs. ABGSC, 16% vs. cons.). Solid guiding for Q2'24, reiterate positive market outlook for 2024 and 2025. Share price up 3-6% vs peers

05/30/24 May 30, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Another example of the power of dividends

Minor estimate changes. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 9% above cons. TP NOK 188 (196) – P/NAV 1.11x

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
05/15/24 May 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

13% of market cap in Q1 dividends

EBITDA USD 81m (ABGSCe 76m, cons. 77m). Q2'23 guidance below cons. Q1 and dividends outweighs Q2 IFRS miss, share price up 2-4%.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
05/15/24 May 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Stronger Product Services

Minor adjustments to Shipping, Product Services strong. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 15% above consensus. TP NOK 215 (216) – P/NAV 1.02x.

05/14/24 May 14, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Rates moving up and for the right reason

Minor estimate changes. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 9% above consensus. TP NOK 188 (196) – P/NAV 1.11x.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
05/14/24 May 14, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Near-term estimates down

Lowering Q1 and Q2 estimates. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 21% above cons. TP NOK 216 (221) – P/NAV 0.70x.

02/29/24 February 29, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Q4 in line, decent Q1 guiding

EBITDA USD 233m (4% vs. ABGSC, 2% vs. cons.). ~83% of available fleet days at USD ~55,000/day for Q1'24. Share price down 1-3% vs peers

02/29/24 February 29, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

2024 begins much like 2023 did

Estimates down due to weaker spot market and vessel sales. ABGSCe in line with cons. for '25. TP NOK 196 (216) – P/NAV 0.81x

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
02/15/24 February 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Q4 much as expected, Q1 not as bad as feared

Adj. EBITDA USD 46m (ABGSCe 63m, cons. 62m). Q4'23 guidance above cons, below ABGSCe. Market reaction hard to call, likely slightly positive.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
02/14/24 February 14, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

LPG shipping is looking better than ever before

US LPG production growth is stronger than expected, making the orderbook for 2024-26 "too low". We thus expect still-elevated LPG shipping rates into 2024-25.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
BWLPG-NO BW LPG
12/01/23 December 1, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Solid fundamentals, NAV should appreciate

LPG shipping is looking better than ever before. ABGSC '24e EBITDA +47% vs cons. TP NOK 216 (146) – P/NAV 1.05x.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
12/01/23 December 1, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

High rates seem set to last

LPG shipping is looking better than ever before. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 49% above cons. TP NOK 221 (188) – P/NAV 1.05x.

12/01/23 December 1, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Q3 miss, but "the best is yet to come"

Adj. EBITDA USD 46m (ABGSCe 63m, cons. 62m). Q4'23 guidance above cons, below ABGSCe. Share down 1-3% vs. peers.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
11/28/23 November 28, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Building NAV day by day

Q4e up on higher rates and guidance. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 12% above cons. TP of NOK 188 (156) – P/NAV 0.96x.

11/14/23 November 14, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Miss on DPS, but very bullish market outlook

Adj. net profit USD 122m (-8% vs. ABGSC, -1% vs. cons.). ~79% of available fleet days at USD ~73,000/day for Q4'23. Share price to open down 1-3% in a flat market

11/14/23 November 14, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Rates on fire, and it can last

"Alarming tightness at the moment" and the Panama Canal seems full. Orderbook remains the main worry, but ~25% of it is ethane carriers. TP NOK 146 (114) - up to BUY (Hold).

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
09/04/23 September 4, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

"Alarming tightness at the moment"

"Alarming tightness at the moment". Orderbook remains the main worry, but ~25% of it is ethane carriers. TP NOK 156 (140) – up to BUY (Hold).

09/04/23 September 4, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...

Less than 10% upside, down to HOLD

Q3e EBITDA down 28%, minor changes to '24e-'25e. ABGSCe 12% above cons. '24e EBITDA. TP NOK 114 (113) – down to HOLD (Buy).

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
08/31/23 August 31, 2023 1 EN
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