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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Too much, too fast

Q2e up, minor long-term changes. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 1% above cons. TP NOK 226 (215) – P/NAV 1.16x and HOLD (Buy).

05/31/24 May 31, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

20% beat due to IFRS-15

EBITDA USD 184m (15% vs. ABGSC, 16% vs. cons.). Solid guiding for Q2'24, reiterate positive market outlook for 2024 and 2025. Share price up 3-6% vs peers

05/30/24 May 30, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Stronger Product Services

Minor adjustments to Shipping, Product Services strong. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 15% above consensus. TP NOK 215 (216) – P/NAV 1.02x.

05/14/24 May 14, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Near-term estimates down

Lowering Q1 and Q2 estimates. ABGSC '25e EBITDA 21% above cons. TP NOK 216 (221) – P/NAV 0.70x.

02/29/24 February 29, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Q4 in line, decent Q1 guiding

EBITDA USD 233m (4% vs. ABGSC, 2% vs. cons.). ~83% of available fleet days at USD ~55,000/day for Q1'24. Share price down 1-3% vs peers

02/29/24 February 29, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
AGAS-NO Avance Gas Hold...
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

LPG shipping is looking better than ever before

US LPG production growth is stronger than expected, making the orderbook for 2024-26 "too low". We thus expect still-elevated LPG shipping rates into 2024-25.

AGAS-NO AVANCE GAS HOLDING
BWLPG-NO BW LPG
12/01/23 December 1, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

High rates seem set to last

LPG shipping is looking better than ever before. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 49% above cons. TP NOK 221 (188) – P/NAV 1.05x.

12/01/23 December 1, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Building NAV day by day

Q4e up on higher rates and guidance. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 12% above cons. TP of NOK 188 (156) – P/NAV 0.96x.

11/14/23 November 14, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Miss on DPS, but very bullish market outlook

Adj. net profit USD 122m (-8% vs. ABGSC, -1% vs. cons.). ~79% of available fleet days at USD ~73,000/day for Q4'23. Share price to open down 1-3% in a flat market

11/14/23 November 14, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

"Alarming tightness at the moment"

"Alarming tightness at the moment". Orderbook remains the main worry, but ~25% of it is ethane carriers. TP NOK 156 (140) – up to BUY (Hold).

09/04/23 September 4, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Less than 10% upside, down to HOLD

Q3 estimates down, long-term reiterated. ABGSC '24e-'25e EBITDA still above cons. TP NOK 140 (144) – down to HOLD (Buy).

08/30/23 August 30, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Potential US listing

Adj. net profit USD 111m (-3% vs. ABGSC, -25% vs. cons.). ~84% of available fleet days at USD ~65,000/day for Q3. Up 2-4% in a flat market.

08/29/23 August 29, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Still too cheap

The LPG arb now indicates ~USD 70k/day upside in VLGC spot rates. ABGSC '24e EBITDA 21% above cons. TP NOK 144 (145) – P/NAV 0.84x.

08/25/23 August 25, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Q1 beat vs cons and ~40% run-rate yield

Adj. net profit USD 116m (-8% vs. ABGSC, 25% vs. cons.). ~90% of available fleet days at USD ~50,000/day for Q2. Up 3-5% in a flat market.

05/23/23 May 23, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

More upside near-term, but clouds coming in

LPG is still cheap, but the arb is exhausted right now. ABGSCe 25% above cons. EBITDA for ’24e. TP NOK 145 (142) – P/NAV 0.66x.

05/22/23 May 22, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
BWLPG-NO BW LPG

Weak rates, bullish market outlook

Adj. net profit USD 95m (-17% vs. ABGSC, -12% vs. cons.). Implied spot rates of USD ~65k/day for Q1'23e. Miss and weak guiding to weigh on the share price.

02/28/23 February 28, 2023 1 EN
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