Q1'24 revised down, long-term as-is

Q1'24 down on guidance, long-term reiterated. ABGSC +75% vs. cons '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP NOK 330 (315).

Q4 as we expected, but weak Q1 guiding

Q4 EBITDA of USD 198m (0% vs. ABGSCe, -8% vs. cons). Q1e guidance below expectations. Share to trade down 1-3% vs. peers.

Nine women can't produce a child in one month

All but VLCC rates are already at or close to ATH. Fleet growth will remain miniscule in '24-'25e. Average total return of ~70% in 2023, but more to come.

Best in class, but please don't sell more ships

Nine women can't produce a child in one month. ABGSC +69% vs. cons '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP of NOK 315 (345).

Sale of five vessels in-line with ABGSCe current NAV

Rumour confirmed, Frontline dispose of five 2009-10 built VLCCs. Sales proceeds of USD 290m in-line with ABGSCe valuation. Net cash proceeds of USD 207m or NOK 9.6/sh, ~4% of current market cap

Estimates down, but asset prices moving up

Q4'23e and Q1'24e EBITDA down 4%-19%. ABGSCe -19% vs. pre-reported cons. BUY, TP NOK 343 (348).

Miss on Q3 and soft Q4 guidance

Q3 EBITDA of USD 173m (-7% vs. ABGSCe, -10% vs. cons). Q4e guidance below expectations. Share to trade down 3-5% vs. peers.

Minor adjustments pre-Q3 report

Minor adjustments pre Q3 report. Slightly below cons. for Q3e. BUY, TP NOK 348 (354).

More ships, leverage and upside

Buying 24 modern VLCCs at NAV. Deal lifts EBITDA for '24-25 by ~47%. More ships yield more upside: BUY, TP NOK 354 (317).

Norway: Best ideas Q3'23

Best ideas are MOWI, ORK, STB, BRG, FRO, ELMERA, TGS, VÅR and ZAP

Building NAV before the high season

Beat for Q2, in-line for Q3e

Q2 adj. EBITDA 8% above consensus. Q3e guiding in-line with cons, waiting for the high-season. Share price up 1-3% vs. peers today.

36% higher Q3e EBITDA

Volatile tanker rates and increasing asset prices. ABGSCe +123% vs cons. net profit for '24e. TP NOK 302 (315) – BUY.

TP up on higher expected cashflow

Minor long-term adjustments, Q2'23 EBITDA down 7%. ABGSCe 110% above consensus net profit for 2024e. TP NOK 315 (298) – BUY.

Miss in Q1, beating Q2e

Q1 adj EBITDA -3% below ABGSCe. 15-20% upside to cons Q2'23 EBITDA of USD 233m. Share to trade flat vs. peers.

There are still not enough tankers

Minor long -term adjustments, Q1'23 EBITDA up 5%. ABGSCe 130% above consensus net profit for 2024e. TP NOK 298 (289) – BUY.

Best quarter in 14 years is only the beginning

ABGSCe 98% above consensus net profit for 2024e. Minor adjustments to estimates. TP NOK 289 (282) – BUY.

Miss on Q4 and Q1'23 VLCC rates

Q4 adj EBITDA 8% below cons. Reiterates bullish outlook, but weak VLCC spot rate guidance for Q1'23e. Miss on the quarter partly mitigated by DPS of USD 1.07.