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ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Price hikes to support growth after Q1e

Solid Q1e, though recent price hikes will not contribute until Q2. '24e-'26e adj. EBIT up 2-1% on 2% higher sales due to the price lifts. We reiterate HOLD.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Exciting execution and improved outlook

12% EBIT beat, 26% organic growth (vs. 25% in Q3). We lift '24e-'25e EBIT 10-8% on higher sales and lower costs. We stick to HOLD as we await more clarity around price hikes.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Will we see price hikes in '24?

Q4e: 24% organic growth, partly hurt by macro headwinds. We keep our estimates largely unchanged. Reiterate HOLD amid current momentum and 40x f12m EV/EBIT.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

We cut '24e EBIT by 8%

First EBIT miss since Q4'21. We cut '24e-'25e EBIT 8-9% on 4-5% lower sales. A couple of quarters with pressure on organic growth - HOLD.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Tougher comps in Q3e

Q3e: we expect decelerating org. growth (+28%) on tough comps. '24e EBIT -6% on lower assumptions for upselling of products. Decelerating org. growth to hold back multiple expansion – HOLD.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Reaping the benefits of price hikes

Strong Q2, largely in line with expectations. We cut '23e-'25e EBIT on fine-tuned sales and higher opex. Starting to look more appealing, but we keep HOLD on valuation.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Tougher comps, but still strong growth in Q2e

Q2e: 32% org. growth on recent price hikes. We trim '23e-'25e EBIT by 1% on a lower customer intake. Resilient business model, but HOLD on valuation.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Strong Q1 across the board, good outlook

Strong Q1, 32% org. growth and 4% EBIT beat. We lift '23e-'25e EBIT 3-2% on slightly higher sales. Attractive equity story, but reiterate HOLD at 42x '24e EV/EBIT.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Keep for Core, Finance is an option

Highlighting our expectations: strong '23e-'24e outlook for Core but slower progress for Finance, as traction will occur gradually. Reiterate HOLD at 54x f12m EV/EBIT - LT outlook remains good.

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