Danish construction and building materials — laying the foundation

Danish non-residential construction market continues to look robust. Weather data points to a wet start to the year, causing some project delays. We see a less volatile FX environment ahead.

40% drop in applications for energy renovations in France in Q1

Our concerns were unjustified

We revise our '24e-and '25e by -1% and lower our EBIT forecasts by -4 %, mainly on higher employee costs, which leaves us 3-5% ahead of pre-Q4 company-collected consensus.

Surprisingly strong guidance; Buy-back announced

Guidance likely to be very conservative

Uncertainty with respect to demand, competitor actions, and weather likely to mute guidance. We forecast flat organic revenue growth and EBIT of DKK 495m for '24e. TP raised to DKK 1,956 (1,855), HOLD (Buy).

EU Council and Parliament reach agreement on Renovation Wave

Impressions from analyst call with CFO

Relatively stable stone wool vs foam share in Germany

Raises prices on general insulation by 5.9% in Germany

Impressions from Q3'23 roadshow

Revisions of 6-9%. More conservative on price

2024e EBIT raised by 9%. '24e-'25e raised 6-7%. We take a more conservative view on pricing for '24. BUY reiterated. TP raised to DKK 1,855 (1,816).

Better markets in ROW, UK and efficiencies drive upgrade

Q3e: 2-3% below cons. on sales, EBIT but stronger margin

We are 3% below consensus on sales and 2% below on EBIT but slightly ahead on margin (14.6% vs 14.5%). Reiterate BUY, TP DKK 1,816.

Announces raises some prices by 3.5% in Germany

French court says Rockwool can begin construction

Final environmental hurdle in France looks cleared

Yet another upgrade should be a relief

Earnings forecasts raised by 11-15%. We see consensus revisions of 2-6%. BUY, TP unchanged at DKK 1,816.

Despite recent upgrade, all eyes on outlook

Fears with respect to outlook (as well as Russia) have put pressure on the share. Firmly reiterating outlook alongside Q2 could trigger rebound.

Final ruling on French construction in November

Upgraded on revisions, industry developments

We raise our 2023-2025 earnings estimates by 8-15%. Target price raised to DKK 1,816 (1,790). Up to BUY (Hold).