Heads-up for Q1 report, 25 April

Nordic banks: Money machines

Cash yields and cost management increasingly important. We stay positive with four BUY ratings out of six. Positive risk/reward in Nordea and negative in Danske Bank.

Still at a slight discount to the sector

Minor earnings revisions for 2024e-25e. Strong value support and upside in capital repatriation. We keep our BUY rating.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies March 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 32% y-o-y and down 12% m-o-m in March 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 36% y-o-y and down 13% m-o-m in March 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending February 2024

Total lending decreased by 0.2% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.6% and retail lending 0.6%) and by -0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was down by 0.1% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.3% and retail lending 0.6%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending February 2024

Total lending in February was up 3.3% y-o-y (corporate +4.8%; retail +2.4%) and was flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending February 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.4% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.6% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies February 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 69% y-o-y and down 2% m-o-m in February 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending January 2024

Total lending was down 0.3% y-o-y and up 0.7% m-o-m. Last month, total lending decreased 1.2% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending January 2023

Total lending decreased by 0.4% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.4% and retail lending 0.2%) and by 0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up by 0.3% y-o-y (corporate lending 0.3% and retail lending 0.4%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending January 2024

Total lending in January was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%) and was down 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y (corporate +4.9%; retail +3.1%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending January 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies January 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 52% y-o-y and 15% m-o-m in January 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending December 2023

Total lending was down 1.2% y-o-y and flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending decreased 2.0% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending December 2023

Total lending grew by 3.5% y-o-y (3.4% adjusted for FX effects) and -0.2% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending December 2023

Total lending increased by 0.3% y-o-y (corporate lending 0.3% and retail lending 0.3%) and decreased by 0.5% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up by 0.7% y-o-y (corporate lending 1.4% and retail lending 0.4%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending December 2023

Total lending in December was up 3.8% y-o-y (corporate +4.9%; retail +3.1%) and was up 1.5% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 1.4% y-o-y (corporate +4.2%; retail -0.3%).

Q4'23: Strong Q4, but cost outlook disappoints

"Temporary" investments of SEK 1bn p.a. in 2024-25 trigger slightly lower adj. EPS'25e. We keep our BUY rating with a TP of SEK 260 (~30% upside).

Q4'23: Op. profit beat, but higher cost guidance

Nordic banks: Capital repatriation key

Peak NII and peak earnings coming closer, which increases the importance of capital repatriation. Focus on capital repatriation and outlook statements in Q4.