Nordic banks: Money machines

Cash yields and cost management increasingly important. We stay positive with four BUY ratings out of six. Positive risk/reward in Nordea and negative in Danske Bank.

A harder story to tell

Our expectations do not match the guided ROE of >13% by 2026. Estimates up in '24 due to changed loan loss assumptions. Reasonably valued given profitability — HOLD.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies March 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 32% y-o-y and down 12% m-o-m in March 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 36% y-o-y and down 13% m-o-m in March 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending February 2024

Total lending decreased by 0.2% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.6% and retail lending 0.6%) and by -0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was down by 0.1% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.3% and retail lending 0.6%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending February 2024

Total lending in February was up 3.3% y-o-y (corporate +4.8%; retail +2.4%) and was flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending February 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.4% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.6% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies February 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 69% y-o-y and down 2% m-o-m in February 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending January 2024

Total lending was down 0.3% y-o-y and up 0.7% m-o-m. Last month, total lending decreased 1.2% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending January 2023

Total lending decreased by 0.4% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.4% and retail lending 0.2%) and by 0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up by 0.3% y-o-y (corporate lending 0.3% and retail lending 0.4%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending January 2024

Total lending in January was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%) and was down 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y (corporate +4.9%; retail +3.1%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending January 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y.

Distribution to be in focus the next year

PTP 4% ahead of our forecast driven by better income & costs. We raise '24-'25 estimates by 8% from NII and SBB. Capital repatriation needed to get close to ROE >13% by '26. HOLD.

Net profit guidance 2024 in line; too low SBB

PTP -2% vs. cons +4% vs ABG & cons, on just softer income, better costs. SBB of DKK 5.5bn and DPS of DKK 7.5 short of high expectations. Est.rev for 2024: zero as cons in line; stock rather down 1-3% than up.

Capital repatriation to start with DKK 5.5bn

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies January 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 52% y-o-y and 15% m-o-m in January 2024.

Heads-up for Q4 report, 2 February

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending December 2023

Total lending was down 1.2% y-o-y and flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending decreased 2.0% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending December 2023

Total lending grew by 3.5% y-o-y (3.4% adjusted for FX effects) and -0.2% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending December 2023

Total lending increased by 0.3% y-o-y (corporate lending 0.3% and retail lending 0.3%) and decreased by 0.5% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up by 0.7% y-o-y (corporate lending 1.4% and retail lending 0.4%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending December 2023

Total lending in December was up 3.8% y-o-y (corporate +4.9%; retail +3.1%) and was up 1.5% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 1.4% y-o-y (corporate +4.2%; retail -0.3%).