Weak NII & fees, good costs, AQ & CET1

Adj. net profit +3%/+5% and adj. PBLL -1%/+2% vs. ABG/Infront cons. Miss PBLL from weaker NII & fees, while better PTP from lower LLP. Cons.est. -1-3% for 24e-25e (NII); stock same, but share BB mute

Heads-up for Q1 report, 25 April

Heads-up for Q1 report, 24 April

Heads-up for Q1 report, 24 April

Heads-up Q1

We just expect a neutral risk/reward into the numbers for DNB, as we are just ahead / aligned with consensus' profit before loan losses & pre-tax profit.

Q1'24: Still a preferred choice in the sector

Minor net earnings revisions for 2024e-26e. 12% annual cash yields (incl. buybacks) in 2025e-26e. We keep our BUY rating with a TP of SEK 152. (152)

Q1'24: Operating profit beat, but no buybacks

Heads-up for Q1 report, 18 April

Nordic banks: Money machines

Cash yields and cost management increasingly important. We stay positive with four BUY ratings out of six. Positive risk/reward in Nordea and negative in Danske Bank.

Dividend yields vs. bond yields

11% dividend yields p.a. is the main attraction. Minor net earnings revisions. Still attractive enough for a decent absolute return. BUY.

A disciplined bank

A harder story to tell

Our expectations do not match the guided ROE of >13% by 2026. Estimates up in '24 due to changed loan loss assumptions. Reasonably valued given profitability — HOLD.

Another solid quarter on the cards

Net earnings scenario intact for 2024e-25e. Strong value support. We stick to our BUY rating.

All eyes on the buyback approval

Earnings scenario intact. NII & net earnings resilience in absolute & relative terms. Solid track record - BUY.

Still at a slight discount to the sector

Minor earnings revisions for 2024e-25e. Strong value support and upside in capital repatriation. We keep our BUY rating.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies March 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 32% y-o-y and down 12% m-o-m in March 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 36% y-o-y and down 13% m-o-m in March 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending February 2024

Total lending decreased by 0.2% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.6% and retail lending 0.6%) and by -0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was down by 0.1% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.3% and retail lending 0.6%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending February 2024

Total lending in February was up 3.3% y-o-y (corporate +4.8%; retail +2.4%) and was flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending February 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.4% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.6% y-o-y.

Potential in cost-cutting and capital repatriation