Weak NII & fees, good costs, AQ & CET1

Adj. net profit +3%/+5% and adj. PBLL -1%/+2% vs. ABG/Infront cons. Miss PBLL from weaker NII & fees, while better PTP from lower LLP. Cons.est. -1-3% for 24e-25e (NII); stock same, but share BB mute

Heads-up Q1

We just expect a neutral risk/reward into the numbers for DNB, as we are just ahead / aligned with consensus' profit before loan losses & pre-tax profit.

Nordic banks: Money machines

Cash yields and cost management increasingly important. We stay positive with four BUY ratings out of six. Positive risk/reward in Nordea and negative in Danske Bank.

A disciplined bank

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies March 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 32% y-o-y and down 12% m-o-m in March 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 36% y-o-y and down 13% m-o-m in March 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending February 2024

Total lending decreased by 0.2% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.6% and retail lending 0.6%) and by -0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was down by 0.1% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.3% and retail lending 0.6%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending February 2024

Total lending in February was up 3.3% y-o-y (corporate +4.8%; retail +2.4%) and was flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending February 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.4% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.6% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies February 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 69% y-o-y and down 2% m-o-m in February 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending January 2024

Total lending was down 0.3% y-o-y and up 0.7% m-o-m. Last month, total lending decreased 1.2% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending January 2023

Total lending decreased by 0.4% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.4% and retail lending 0.2%) and by 0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up by 0.3% y-o-y (corporate lending 0.3% and retail lending 0.4%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending January 2024

Total lending in January was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%) and was down 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y (corporate +4.9%; retail +3.1%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending January 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies January 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 52% y-o-y and 15% m-o-m in January 2024.

Refocusing on total yields as growth stalls

Q4: Slower volume growth again for both lending and deposits leads us to lower '24e-'25e adj EPS by 3-4%, but we up DPS. Total yield focus gives ~11% p.a. '24e-'25e and trimmed CET1. HOLD.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending December 2023

Total lending was down 1.2% y-o-y and flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending decreased 2.0% y-o-y.

Miss on numbers, much better DPS

Norwegian banks - Q4 sector preview

Sector trading at '24e-'25e P/Es of 8.5x and 9.1x, with abating NIM, and at '23e P/BV 1.2x with normalised ROE of ~14%, still attractive. Adj. EPS up for '24e, down for '25e; we prefer SVEG & MING.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending December 2023

Total lending grew by 3.5% y-o-y (3.4% adjusted for FX effects) and -0.2% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y.

Heads-up for Q4 report, 31 January