Weak NII & fees, good costs, AQ & CET1

Adj. net profit +3%/+5% and adj. PBLL -1%/+2% vs. ABG/Infront cons. Miss PBLL from weaker NII & fees, while better PTP from lower LLP. Cons.est. -1-3% for 24e-25e (NII); stock same, but share BB mute

Heads-up Q1

We just expect a neutral risk/reward into the numbers for DNB, as we are just ahead / aligned with consensus' profit before loan losses & pre-tax profit.

Lending margins coming back

Q1e: NIM getting close to the peak. New interest rate path lifts '24e and '25e adj. EPS. In need of SOON synergies: HOLD.

Nordic banks: Money machines

Cash yields and cost management increasingly important. We stay positive with four BUY ratings out of six. Positive risk/reward in Nordea and negative in Danske Bank.

A disciplined bank

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies March 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 32% y-o-y and down 12% m-o-m in March 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 36% y-o-y and down 13% m-o-m in March 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending February 2024

Total lending decreased by 0.2% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.6% and retail lending 0.6%) and by -0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was down by 0.1% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.3% and retail lending 0.6%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending February 2024

Total lending in February was up 3.3% y-o-y (corporate +4.8%; retail +2.4%) and was flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending February 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.4% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.6% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies February 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 69% y-o-y and down 2% m-o-m in February 2024.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending January 2024

Total lending was down 0.3% y-o-y and up 0.7% m-o-m. Last month, total lending decreased 1.2% y-o-y.

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending January 2023

Total lending decreased by 0.4% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.4% and retail lending 0.2%) and by 0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up by 0.3% y-o-y (corporate lending 0.3% and retail lending 0.4%)

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending January 2024

Total lending in January was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%) and was down 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y (corporate +4.9%; retail +3.1%).

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending January 2024

Total lending grew by 3.6% y-o-y (3.5% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.8% y-o-y.

NIM spread to peers to stay

Adj . PTP missed our expectations on higher costs , loan losses. Higher NII, trading & associates muted by costs. Dividend yield of ~9% compares well vs . peers: HOLD.

Awaiting the merger: HOLD

Adj. PTP +12% amid write-backs and better NII. EPS up +3% for '24e and +6% for '25e on higher NIM. Fair price on SR-Bank ahead of the merger: HOLD.

Investing for growth

Softer underlying PBLL saved by lower loan losses and capital gains. Adj. EPS up 6% and 3% amid higher NII & associates; costs mute. Norm. RONAV of 13% supports 1.4x P/NAV gives more upside: BUY.

Norw. Savingsbanks - could be just soft today

A growing bank with a lean capital structure

Q4: Adj. PTP +13% vs. ABGSCe and +18% vs. cons. on NII & cost. Adj. EPS in '24e-'25e up 3% on wider higher lending. Reiteriate BUY given its strong ROE, yield and superior C/I-ratios.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies January 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 52% y-o-y and 15% m-o-m in January 2024.