ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 02/26/2025

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 26/02/2025

Nel: FY24 results, poor visibility FY25

NEL has reported FY24 revenues below consensus expectations at NOK1.39bn (+3% YoY, -3% vs cons. at NOK1.43bn), but a slightly better than expected EBITDA loss of -NOK173m (+9% vs cons. at -NOK191m), vs -NOK272m in FY23. Q4 dynamics followed a fairly similar pace to previous quarters, supported by a

Very low backlog for 2025

Energy Morning - 26 February 2025

Bourdon results coming up

Now is the time to buy

High operational leverage still unfavoured

Saipem Q4 +3% above - lifts long-term margin target

Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - In line should be enough

The Q4 results were in line with our estimates and consensus, as was the 2025 production and capex guidance, although the partner and operator guidance suggest production may trend towards the lower end of the 11–13kboed range (we forecast 12kboed). Over the past three years, actual production has ended 5–10% below the initial guidance; hence, with the stock trading at a ~30% discount to NAV, we believe solid execution could restore investor confidence and support a re-rating. We reiterate our B...

Saipem : Saipem 7: reliance on Saipem in terms of share performance th...

Saipem and Subsea 7 announced a plan for a merger of equals to create Saipem 7, the world leader in subsea services. While this appears to be an attractive deal, we think that a real risk exists in terms of antitrust approval. A merger parity has been set (6.688 Saipem shares for 1 Subsea 7 share) which means that Subsea 7’s share performance is now correlated to that of Saipem (for which we have identified two risky contracts). The deal is expected to be completed within 18 months, meaning a lo...

Saipem : Saipem7 : dépendance boursière à Saipem que nous jugeons trop...

Saipem et Subsea 7 annoncent leur souhait de procéder à une fusion entre égaux pour créer Saipem 7, le leader mondial sur le métier du Subsea. Si cette opération peut sembler attirante, nous pensons qu’un véritable risque réside du côté des autorités antitrust. Une parité de fusion a été fixée (6.688 actions Saipem pour 1 Subsea 7) rendant ainsi l’évolution du cours de Bourse de Subsea 7 corrélée à celui de Saipem (chez qui nous avons identifié deux contrats à risque). L’opération devrait être f...

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Increasing shareholder distributions to ...

• FY24 production, YE24 cash and debt had been reported previously. • FY25 production is expected to be 11-13 mbbl/d with only US$35 mm capex. We have trimmed our production forecast from 13.1 mbbl/d to 12.5 mbbl/d and our capex estimates from US$40 mm to US$35 mm. • The highlight of the announcement is the significant increase in shareholder distributions. Panoro has declared a NOK80 mm dividend for 4Q24, up from NOK50 mm in 3Q24. In 2025, Panoro plans to distribute NOK500 mm, including quarter...

Brazilian regulators said to have suspended several drillships

News reports, as confirmed by Ventura Offshore, suggest the Brazilian regulator (ANP) has ordered the suspension of operations for certain rigs offshore Brazil, related to what appears to be safety issues. Unlike suspensions seen for jackups by Saudi Aramco and Pemex, these suspensions are not related to a lack of demand, but rather what appears to be safety procedures in the view of the regulator, which the news article highlights as “minor issues”. Hence, we expect no wider impact for the offs...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 25 February 2025

DPS below guidance on lower oil prices

A good Q4 report

Subsea 7 (Hold, TP: NOK205.00) - Looking for clarity

While we see the rationale for combining the subsea segments of Subsea 7 and Saipem, dilution of the focused story in Subsea 7 is a risk through Saipem’s onshore E&C and offshore drilling exposure, and its more mixed operating track record. We see a risk of SOTP discount/multiples compression offsetting the positives (implied 10% relative premium and synergies). The key ahead could be clarity on possible spin-offs and/or asset sales to clean up the structure. We have downgraded it to HOLD (BUY) ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/24/2025