reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
Luxury goods: The trend should gradually improve in 2025 after a chall...
After a poor 2024 vintage, we expect a gradual recovery during 2025, which will nevertheless remain a soft year as we anticipate an average sales increase of just 4% for our luxury groups sample (+3% excluding Hermès). Q1 is set to be challenging with a 1% average sales decline (-2% excluding Hermès
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: black tariff clouds looming over consumers
In our last report a month ago ("Trumping tariffs"), we were relatively optimistic as Donald Trump had only added a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and implemented a 30-day pause on tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the situation has darkened since an additional 10% tariff has been
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Loic Morvan
Ferragamo: visibility on 2025 still poor
2024 results were in line with market expectations. Adjusted EBIT fell 56% to EUR35m, implying a further profitability erosion (-350bp to 3.3%). During yesterday's analysts' call, management stated that the 2025 consensus is achievable (for both top line and EBIT). Given the lack of visibility, we
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: beyond soft core 2025 guidance, what to expect from June s...
Post-FY, we have lifted our PT from EUR28 to EUR30 to reflect a MSD to HSD EPS raise (o/w DD Unieuro integration boost partly mitigated by softer core business). We expect the June CMD to focus on FCF generation with services, new businesses and Unieuro synergies fuelling margin recovery. Beyond a
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #58
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the drivers behdind the busy M&A activity in Beauty. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
EssilorLux: just starting to unleash its tech innovation
FY24 results released yesterday evening showed a 2% beat for Q4 sales numbers, aided by the success of EssilorLux's tech products. The latter impacted FY margins, compounded by FX headwinds and inflationary pressure, resulting in a modest miss on the aEBIT margin (+20bps to 16.7% vs. CSSe at 16.8%)
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: Trumping tariffs
With existing duties relatively low compared to other consumer categories, the potential new tariffs that could be imposed by incoming President Trump are naturally sparking concern across the US optical industry. At this stage, we are optimistic about the sector's ability to navigate tariffs: (i)
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #51
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the new record high reached by online shopping during the Cyber Week 2024.
- Cedric Rossi
Eyewear: what caught our eyes in Q3 publications
Q3 publications were generally more mixed than previous quarters with many players flagging polarised consumer behaviour even in the traditionally defensive prescription category. Most companies were relatively optimistic about Q4 thanks to easier comparatives and a more favourable category-mix, wh
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #50
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at Deloitte and NRF's predictions for the 2024 holiday shopping season, expec
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: groups embrace the holiday season with cautious optimism
This week, National Vision (NV) and Warby Parker (WRBY) both reported positive Q3 numbers, confirming the first signs of stabilisation within the US eyewear market as the two players address different customer bases and price points. Obviously it was too early to draw conclusions from Trump's win o
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: Officially back to Italy
Fnac Darty now owns 71.5% of Unieuro and has some legal leeway in Italy to force a delisting even with less than 90% of shares. While it is too early to integrate Unieuro into our model, we continue to view this as strategically relevant, while remaining cautious on the execution risks it bears and
- Cedric Rossi
EssilorLux: Q3 sales miss but rebound already in sight for Q4
Q2 sales released last night came in 2% shy of the CSSe due to weaker-than-expected FX-n growth (+4% vs. CSSe of c.6%) resulting from sequential decelerations in EMEA (temporary in our view) and China (LSD growth vs. +9% in H1). Reassuring, CFO Stefano Grassi confirmed during the call that Q4 sales
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Ferragamo: DTC trends stabilising but FY24e EBIT under pressure
Yesterday, Ferragamo published another disappointing quarter with Q3 2024 sales down 7.4% FX-n. Management guided for FY24e EBIT to reach EUR30m vs. CSSe midpoint of EUR43m, implying only EUR3m in EBIT in H2. As the environment remains complicated for the sector and even more so for brands in turna
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: gross margin-fuelled EBIT guidance upgrade
Post-Q3 marked by disappointing LfL and impressive gross margin expansion fuelled by services and the category mix, we have lifted our FY 2024-26 EBIT by c.2% and expect the consensus to do the same. But the equity story remains polluted by persistent uncertainties concerning the ongoing bid for Un
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #43
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. As we are now entering the crucial holiday shopping season, this week we look at external facto
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