reports
- Clément Genelot
Tesco: stronger UK momentum, record valuation, what next?
Post-Kantar's P07 UK market share data release, we have lifted our EPS/FCF by 1%/4% to reflect higher food inflation and stronger market share gains in a UK market that continues to hold steady for now. PT increased to 433p. Despite a less compelling risk/reward at current valuation levels, we cont
- Cédric Rossi
- Clément Genelot
Fashion: navigating a cautious summer
Based on recent market trends, the start of Q3 appears to be a continuation of the softness observed in May and June for the fashion industry, as prolonged macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer spending. This environment has prompted a wait-and-see approach amo
- Cédric Rossi
- Clément Genelot
Fashion: No sign of spring in second quarter
As we feared in our February sector update, tariffs took a toll on US consumer sentiment, prompting shoppers to become more cautious on discretionary spending. European optimism ticked up marginally as did spending intentions, leading to soft market trends in May-June. In view of constrained pricin
- Clément Genelot
Tesco: handling Asda well so far
Post-strong Q1 results with Tesco handling Asda even better than expected and slightly higher food inflation, we have lifted our FY25/26-27/28 FCF estimates by 5% and our PT from 387p to 418p. Although the stock has recovered from its April dip and is back at an all-time high since 2015 at 397p and
- Cédric Rossi
Inditex: normalised, not neutralised (cancel & replace)
Whereas Q1 results broadly met expectations, current trading was again underwhelming, with sales from 1st May to 9th June up 6% FX-n (vs. CSSe c.+7%), reflecting volatile demand and a tough comp base. We have trimmed our FY25 estimates by 3% to account for the ongoing normalisation phase and a more
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
Suspension of Coverage
From 2nd of June we are suspending coverage of companies below due to a reallocation of resources. Our prior estimates should no longer be used as an indicator for the company moving forward.ADIDASBEIERSDORFCARREFOURDELIVERY HEROESSILORLUXOTTICAHELLOFRESHHermès InternationalHUGO BOSSINTERPARFUMSJUS
ADS ADIDAS AG
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
ITP INTERPARFUMS
OR L'OREAL SA
KER KERING SA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
SFL SAFILO GROUP S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
SFER SALVATORE FERRAGAMO S.P.A.
TKWY JUST EAT TAKEAWAY.COM N.V.
CFR RICHEMONT
BEI BEIERSDORF
BOSS HUGO BOSS
DHER DELIVERY HERO
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
EF ESSILORLUXOTTICA
UHR THE SWATCH GROUP
MC LVMH
- Cedric Rossi
Eyewear: what caught our eyes in Q1 publications
Against macro uncertainty and a fluid tariff backdrop, the O&E industry has played its defensive role with an average performance of +15% YTD (vs. soft luxury sample at -5% and sportswear at -11%), supported by reassuring Q1 publications, proactive tariff mitigation initiatives and reiterated F
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #71
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how tariffs have dominated recent earnings calls over other topics such a
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: trade war lifted multiples, beware of future sector rotat...
European food retail enjoyed a paradoxical 1.5x P/E expansion vs. deteriorating earnings trend YTD now turning negative, fuelled by a sector rotation with investors looking for defensive stocks. With trade wars easing, we have reviewed the valuation, earnings momentum and sector indicators for each
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #68
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at fragile US consumer sentiment which might precede a sharp pullback in spe
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #67
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the largest beauty groups in the world. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
EssilorLux: sound performance in Q1 and April
Q1 sales unveiled yesterday reached EUR6.85bn (+7.3% FX-n), fairly in line with market expectations (BBGe: EUR6.85bn and +7.1% FX-n) as the group's strong momentum in EMEA offset a relative softness in North America. More importantly, management confirmed that April performed on par with Q1 across
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
Fashion disruption: will de minimis reforms trigger "de maximis" marke...
In addition to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the Trump administration is also closing the Chinese de minimis loophole from 1st May onwards, which will considerably disrupt the business model of major platforms like Shein and Temu in the US. Although this new market paradigm could be wel
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: Buy rating untouched after earnings recalibration
Post-FY, we have cut our sales, EBIT and retail FCF estimates by 1%, 5% and 8% respectively, to reflect price investments made YTD in the UK. However, we do not expect a full-blown price war with the need to further reinvest, and are pricing in the top-end of FY EBIT guidance. Consensus has recalib
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign
- Cedric Rossi
Sporting Goods: reciprocal tariffs, the last straw?
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" plan announced on 2nd April now applies huge tariff rates to new countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, which are key in the sourcing of US footwear and apparel. Although apparel and footwear are already heavily taxed at an average of 14.6% and 12.3% respectively, compar
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: black tariff clouds looming over consumers
In our last report a month ago ("Trumping tariffs"), we were relatively optimistic as Donald Trump had only added a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and implemented a 30-day pause on tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the situation has darkened since an additional 10% tariff has been
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #62
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's trade war is negatively impacting US consumer sentiment. Happ
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: can Asda really revive the price war in the UK?
As Asda's new leader sends the group to the front line with a very aggressive and risky price repositioning plan, we struggle to identify a scenario whereby Asda would have enough ammunition to hold out. The feared scenario of a revived price war in the UK is not (yet) here, but we are adopting a s
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