reports
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: Buy rating untouched after earnings recalibration
Post-FY, we have cut our sales, EBIT and retail FCF estimates by 1%, 5% and 8% respectively, to reflect price investments made YTD in the UK. However, we do not expect a full-blown price war with the need to further reinvest, and are pricing in the top-end of FY EBIT guidance. Consensus has recalib
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign
- Cedric Rossi
Sporting Goods: reciprocal tariffs, the last straw?
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" plan announced on 2nd April now applies huge tariff rates to new countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, which are key in the sourcing of US footwear and apparel. Although apparel and footwear are already heavily taxed at an average of 14.6% and 12.3% respectively, compar
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: black tariff clouds looming over consumers
In our last report a month ago ("Trumping tariffs"), we were relatively optimistic as Donald Trump had only added a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and implemented a 30-day pause on tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the situation has darkened since an additional 10% tariff has been
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #62
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's trade war is negatively impacting US consumer sentiment. Happ
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: can Asda really revive the price war in the UK?
As Asda's new leader sends the group to the front line with a very aggressive and risky price repositioning plan, we struggle to identify a scenario whereby Asda would have enough ammunition to hold out. The feared scenario of a revived price war in the UK is not (yet) here, but we are adopting a s
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: navigating temporary sales growth hiccups
Whereas the slowdown in current trading was clearly more abrupt than expected, we believe this hiccup is temporary, as shown by the rebound in the first week of March to +7%. The latter is more consistent with our scenario of normalising sales trends towards 7% FX-n growth over the FY25-27 period,
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: sound FY24 results but current trading has decelerated
For the fourth year in a row, Inditex achieved double-digit FX-n sales growth with +10.5% in FY24 with EBIT margin improving by 70bps to a new record level of 19.6%. FY24 total dividend amounted to EUR1.68 and matched expectations. Note that Inditex's current trading only increased by 4% FX-n, part
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #58
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the drivers behdind the busy M&A activity in Beauty. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
EssilorLux: just starting to unleash its tech innovation
FY24 results released yesterday evening showed a 2% beat for Q4 sales numbers, aided by the success of EssilorLux's tech products. The latter impacted FY margins, compounded by FX headwinds and inflationary pressure, resulting in a modest miss on the aEBIT margin (+20bps to 16.7% vs. CSSe at 16.8%)
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #57
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage: Luxury goods, Cosmetics, Consumer goods and Retail & E-commerce. This week, we look at the Fed's dilemma between its "wait-and-see" stance and mitigating the potential inflationar
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: Trumping tariffs
With existing duties relatively low compared to other consumer categories, the potential new tariffs that could be imposed by incoming President Trump are naturally sparking concern across the US optical industry. At this stage, we are optimistic about the sector's ability to navigate tariffs: (i)
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: stay covered to thrive in the uncertain fashion world
Trump's tariff tactics confirm that the fashion industry is in for another volatile and uncertain year in 2025. Relatively resilient market trends across Europe and the US mask the growing number of price-sensitive consumers, forcing fashion groups to choose between top-line growth and margin prote
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: sacrificing a short-term guidance upgrade for longer-term volum...
The Christmas period was strong with Tesco proactively investing further and building volume momentum. The group has traded in a potential guidance upgrade for longer-term volume gains, which makes sense in view of its competitors' limited room for manoeuvre. Buy reiterated with a 403p PT and persi
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #52
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. For the last Consumer Weekly of 2024, we look at the normal inertia effect between improving US
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex not immune to temporary bumps
Unsurprisingly, the combination of demanding market expectations and softer Q3 numbers triggered some profit-taking moves after the stock's 41% YTD rally. As flagged in our comment yesterday, the Q3 miss was largely due to FX headwinds, but during the call management guided for a moderate impact in
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex Q3 2024 results: sales and EBIT miss, in-line current trading
This morning Inditex's Q3 results missed CSSe both on sales and EBIT, by 2% and 5% respectively. A more harmful FX headwind hampered the sales performance as ITX reached a 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit FX-n sales growth (+11%), while the EBIT miss was mainly caused by the GM erosion of 2
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