We were wrong about Cities 2 comeback

Weakened Cities outlook sees us cut '24e-'26e EBIT 24%, 13% & 3%. 2024 now looks to be an even more difficult year, with falling earnings. Share -22% YTD reflects this; better '25 outlook means we stay BUYers.

Cities 2 mess continues

Will Paradox resume support of Imperator: Rome?

Players are urging Paradox to bring back Imperator: Rome. Activity and sales for the games at multi-year highs, despite no support. A low-risk investment to add the game back to the active portfolio, in our view.

Major Europa Universalis 5 news

Millennia to be released earlier than expected

Buy now, get the new games for free

Capex reduction boosted FCF more than expected in Q4. Backlog growth is accelerating under the surface, largely unnoticed. Reiterate BUY, 24x-14x EV/EBIT and 28% EPS CAGR '24e-'26e.

Better than expected

Life by You delayed, and other news

Don't miss the forest for the trees

Announces new game: Prison Architect 2

Prison Architect 2 releases on 26 March. Could sell 500k copies in 2024 for SEK 120m in sales. We expect limited revisions, but this reduces estimate risk.

Cities: Skylines 2 climbing on Steam again

Cities: Skylines 2 fell sharply on Steam's global top-seller list last week, which we think had a negative impact on the Paradox share.

We lift Q4e on strong backlog trends

Strong backlog sales in Q4 so far, expectations look too low. We raise Q4e sales and adj. EBIT by 9% and 13%. BUY: solid valuation support at 4% FCF yield & 19x EV/EBIT '24e.

Feedback from ABGSC Growth Seminar

Expect positive revisions on Cities 2

Rarely has the share been more attractive

Soft Q3 out of the way, let's focus on Q4e. Sales and player activity at ATH in Q4e, while valuation at ATL. BUY: 5% FCF yield and 17x EBIT on '24e with 15% EPS CAGR.

Soft Q3 as expected, but sales in line with ABG

Cities 2: First day a tad below expectations

Cities: Skylines 2 expectations

Cities 2: Solid pre-orders despite softer reviews

Disappointing reviews for Cities 2