Serial acquirers: Earnings trough, M&A in focus

Return to organic growth in Q3e, increased M&A activity likely. '24e-'26e EBITA/EPS up 3% (FX +1%, M&A +2%). ~21x EBITA limits upside, but mild downturn+M&A could offer support.

Tough market persists in Q1

Q1 report Fri 3 May, '24e-'26e EBITA down 1-0%; 5% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 40 unchanged.

Negative data from SE plumbing market

SE market outlook: -3% '24e, +2% '25e

The merger we've been waiting for

Encouraging stability

Stable org. EBITA and good FCF, but lower margins, '24e-'25e EBITA unchanged, 5% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 40 unchanged.

5% adj. EBITA miss, stable org. EBITA, good FCF

Serial acquirers: Slowdown caps upside

Stable demand, but deceleration continues, '24e-'25e EBITA unchanged, neg. risk/reward after strong multiple uplift since Q3.

Tougher climate, but stable profitability

Q4 Thursday 15 Feb, '23e-'25e EBITA up 0-2%; 8% CAGR '22-'25e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 40 (35)

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

Serial acquirers Q3 recap: A steady deceleration

Q3 recap: deceleration continues, but better org. sales, 5% EBITA beat, '23e-'25e EBITA up 2-1% post-Q3, sector up 4% YTD (EPS up 14%), now trading at 16.9x F12m EV/EBITA, 3% below 10Y avg.

Good finish to the summer break

6% adj. EBITA beat, pos. FCF, stable margins. '23e-'25e EBITA up 5-2%; 7% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep HOLD and TP of SEK 35.

6% adj. EBITA beat due to Rest of Nordic

Serial acquirers: Quality not yet at a discount

One final double-digit growth quarter, with org. growth to turn neg. in Q4e. '23e-'25e EBITA down 0-2%, EPS down 1-4%. Entry point increasingly attractive: ADDT up to BUY (Hold).

Approaching negative territory

Q3 due Friday, 27 October at 07:30 CET. 2023e-2025e adj. EBITA down 1/6/5%. Keep HOLD, TP SEK 35 (40).

Deceleration triggers sector correction

Q2 recap: deceleration visible as org. sales miss, 3% EBITA beat, '23e-'25e EBITA down 0-2% post-Q2, sector up 8% YTD (EPS up 11%), now trading at 15.9x F12m EV/EBITA, 3% below 10Y avg.

3% adj. EBITA beat, credit loss a negative

Serial acquirers: Strong, but trending down

Higher expectations this time around, deceleration visible. '23e-'25e EBITA up 3-4% (FX 3%, M&A 1%), EPS up 2-3%. We remain neutral-to-slightly negative: LIFCO up to HOLD (Sell).

A positive trend is emerging

Org. growth and margins behind 12% beat. '23e-'25e adj. EBITA up 4-1%; 10% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep HOLD, TP SEK 61 (58).

Strong start, 12% EBITA beat, org. EBITA growth