No financing news is good news

Q1 report due 25 April. Q1'24e net sales SEK 2,382m, adj. EBITA SEK 21m. We reiterate BUY, B/S looks rather de-risked. TP to SEK 22 (21).

E-commerce traffic - Q1'24

We have evaluated Similarweb data for March. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites up 2% y-o-y. We reiterate Rugvista and RVRC as our top picks.

E-commerce traffic - February 2024

We have evaluated Similarweb data for February. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites +6% y-o-y. Rugvista's operational success visible in traffic.

Swedish sector top picks post Q4 reports

Soft org. growth but strong margin expansion among mid/large caps. E-commerce penetration back to growth. We highlight Axfood, H&M, Rugvista and RVRC as top picks.

Some light at the end of the tunnel

Soft end to the year for sales, better gross margin. Cost base vastly reduced, '24e EBITA margin +3pp y-o-y. We reiterate BUY, TP of SEK 21 (17).

Inventory situation to normalise in '24e

E-handelsindikatorn gives Q4'23 insights

We have evaluated the December '23 E-handelsindikatorn. We find some upside risk to Lyko's estimates and potential downside risk to RVRC & BHG's estimates.

Consolidation continues in Q4

Q4 report due 26 Jan. Q4'23e net sales SEK 2,948m, adj. EBITA SEK 90m. We reiterate BUY with a lower SEK 17 (18) TP.

E-commerce traffic - December 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb data for December. Traffic to e-com sites declined y-o-y in the last month of the year. Competition from international marketplaces intensifies.

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

E-commerce traffic - November 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb data for November. RVRC and Boozt the top performers again. We keep Rugvista as our sector top pick.

Swedish sector top picks post Q3 reports

Mid- and large cap durables missed expectations. Minor revisions to '24e earnings as visibility remains low. Opportunities within E-com and price/value players.

Divestments lift Q4 estimates slightly

Group top line in line with expectations, DIY weighs. Gross margin impact from campaigns leads to miss on EBITA. We lower EBITA for '23e-'25e by 13-2%.

Q3: rebuilding the Group

Updated E-handelsindikatorn gives Q3 insights

Positive data for RVRC Nordics, Rugvista Nordics, Boozt. Net downside risk to BHG estimates. We reiterate our top picks Rugvista, RVRC.

Cleaning house

Estimates updated following 29/9 restructuring. We raise '23e-'25e EBITA by 11-5%. We reiterate BUY, TP SEK 20 (19).

New CEO walks the walk

Fall optimism has taken a slight beat

Q3 report due 26 Oct. Q3'23e net sales SEK 2,849m, adj. EBITA SEK 52m. We reiterate BUY, TP SEK 19 (23).

E-commerce traffic – August 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb traffic for August. Rugvista/RVRC were the top performers. Boozt only partly shows that July was a one-off.

Sector top picks post Q2 reports

Mid- and large caps beat expectations and got paid for it. Small estimate revisions as visibility remains low. Valuations in the sector offer opportunities.