Gross margin pressure persists

Q1 report due 8 May 2024. Q1'24e net sales SEK 197m, EBIT SEK 27m. We reiterate BUY on 10x '24e EV/EBIT.

No financing news is good news

Q1 report due 25 April. Q1'24e net sales SEK 2,382m, adj. EBITA SEK 21m. We reiterate BUY, B/S looks rather de-risked. TP to SEK 22 (21).

Doubling the margin could be possible

Q1 report due 25 April 2024. Q1'24e net sales of SEK 1,746m, adj. EBIT of SEK 36m. 2028 targets add another leg to the BUY case.

E-commerce traffic - Q1'24

We have evaluated Similarweb data for March. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites up 2% y-o-y. We reiterate Rugvista and RVRC as our top picks.

E-commerce traffic - February 2024

We have evaluated Similarweb data for February. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites +6% y-o-y. Rugvista's operational success visible in traffic.

Swedish sector top picks post Q4 reports

Soft org. growth but strong margin expansion among mid/large caps. E-commerce penetration back to growth. We highlight Axfood, H&M, Rugvista and RVRC as top picks.

Sector top pick

Becoming excellent at e-commerce. Q4 was interpreted wrongly by the market. In a soft market, there is room for Rugvista to grow. BUY.

Q4: More than meets the eye

Rugvista kept up its strong growth momentum from Q3 into Q4 with its 9% organic growth, and net sales of SEK 233m was 5% better than FactSet consensus expectations.

Strong end to a strong year

Strong end of year for Boozt. '24e set to grow further with expanding margin. We reiterate BUY, raise TP to SEK 150 (145).

Margin to expand further in 2024

Cheaper rugs lead to deleverage

Some light at the end of the tunnel

Soft end to the year for sales, better gross margin. Cost base vastly reduced, '24e EBITA margin +3pp y-o-y. We reiterate BUY, TP of SEK 21 (17).

Inventory situation to normalise in '24e

E-handelsindikatorn gives Q4'23 insights

We have evaluated the December '23 E-handelsindikatorn. We find some upside risk to Lyko's estimates and potential downside risk to RVRC & BHG's estimates.

Caution is advised when skimming Q4 KPIs

Q4 report due 8 February. Q4'23e net sales SEK 232m, EBIT SEK 39m. We reiterate BUY, unchanged TP SEK 80.

Q4 cash flow could be a positive surprise

Q4 report due 8 February. Q4'23e net sales SEK 2,870m (18% growth), adj. EBIT SEK 215m. We reiterate BUY, TP SEK 145 (140).

Consolidation continues in Q4

Q4 report due 26 Jan. Q4'23e net sales SEK 2,948m, adj. EBITA SEK 90m. We reiterate BUY with a lower SEK 17 (18) TP.

E-commerce traffic - December 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb data for December. Traffic to e-com sites declined y-o-y in the last month of the year. Competition from international marketplaces intensifies.

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

E-commerce traffic - November 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb data for November. RVRC and Boozt the top performers again. We keep Rugvista as our sector top pick.