Gross margin pressure persists

Q1 report due 8 May 2024. Q1'24e net sales SEK 197m, EBIT SEK 27m. We reiterate BUY on 10x '24e EV/EBIT.

E-commerce traffic - Q1'24

We have evaluated Similarweb data for March. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites up 2% y-o-y. We reiterate Rugvista and RVRC as our top picks.

E-commerce traffic - February 2024

We have evaluated Similarweb data for February. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites +6% y-o-y. Rugvista's operational success visible in traffic.

Swedish sector top picks post Q4 reports

Soft org. growth but strong margin expansion among mid/large caps. E-commerce penetration back to growth. We highlight Axfood, H&M, Rugvista and RVRC as top picks.

Sector top pick

Becoming excellent at e-commerce. Q4 was interpreted wrongly by the market. In a soft market, there is room for Rugvista to grow. BUY.

Q4: More than meets the eye

Rugvista kept up its strong growth momentum from Q3 into Q4 with its 9% organic growth, and net sales of SEK 233m was 5% better than FactSet consensus expectations.

Cheaper rugs lead to deleverage

E-handelsindikatorn gives Q4'23 insights

We have evaluated the December '23 E-handelsindikatorn. We find some upside risk to Lyko's estimates and potential downside risk to RVRC & BHG's estimates.

Caution is advised when skimming Q4 KPIs

Q4 report due 8 February. Q4'23e net sales SEK 232m, EBIT SEK 39m. We reiterate BUY, unchanged TP SEK 80.

E-commerce traffic - December 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb data for December. Traffic to e-com sites declined y-o-y in the last month of the year. Competition from international marketplaces intensifies.

E-commerce traffic - November 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb data for November. RVRC and Boozt the top performers again. We keep Rugvista as our sector top pick.

Black Week 2023 - we expect strong growth

Swedish sector top picks post Q3 reports

Mid- and large cap durables missed expectations. Minor revisions to '24e earnings as visibility remains low. Opportunities within E-com and price/value players.

Building from a new platform

Strong organic growth led to 13% net sales beat. We expect marketing pressures to be temporary. We reiterate BUY, TP SEK 80 (75).

Return to (double digit) organic growth

Updated E-handelsindikatorn gives Q3 insights

Positive data for RVRC Nordics, Rugvista Nordics, Boozt. Net downside risk to BHG estimates. We reiterate our top picks Rugvista, RVRC.

More room(s) for improvement

Q3 report due 9 November. Q3'23e net sales SEK 145m, EBIT SEK 20m. We reiterate BUY, TP SEK 75.

E-commerce traffic – August 2023

We have evaluated Similarweb traffic for August. Rugvista/RVRC were the top performers. Boozt only partly shows that July was a one-off.

Sector top picks post Q2 reports

Mid- and large caps beat expectations and got paid for it. Small estimate revisions as visibility remains low. Valuations in the sector offer opportunities.

Rugvista Q2: fourth consecutive beat

Q2 was a strong overall with EBIT +18% vs Factset cons. Positive outlook commentary: July turned to organic growth. At 11x-7x '23e-'25e EV/EBIT, we reiterate BUY - TP of SEK 75 (70).