Deleveraging despite savings

Downside risk to cons, steep multiple: SELL

Byggmax report due 23 April. We forecast net sales of SEK 877m, EBITA of SEK -156m. We reiterate our SELL rating, we are 16% below cons '24e EBITA.

Swedish sector top picks post Q4 reports

Soft org. growth but strong margin expansion among mid/large caps. E-commerce penetration back to growth. We highlight Axfood, H&M, Rugvista and RVRC as top picks.

Sector least preferred

Consensus estimates 16% too high for '24e. Market development is soft: transaction volumes down 20%. Slow housing market also limits 2024 sales.

No clear signs of a market turnaround yet

Despite opex savings, Q4 EBITA margin -5pp y-o-y. Flat growth trend from Q2-Q3 at -15% LFL. We reiterate our sell rating and our SEK 30 TP.

Better than feared

Down to SELL, road to recovery is long

Share up 41% L3M despite soft macro signals. Return to +5% EBITA margins could take until 2026. We are 25% below Factset cons. on '24e EBITA - SELL (Hold).

Swedish sector top picks post Q3 reports

Mid- and large cap durables missed expectations. Minor revisions to '24e earnings as visibility remains low. Opportunities within E-com and price/value players.

Getting leaner and leaner

7% miss on net sales, 13% on EBITA despite opex cuts. We lower EBITA by 12-6% '23e-'25e. We reiterate our HOLD rating, TP down to SEK 28 (30).

Q3: defends margins in a shrinking market

We lower '24e expectations

Q3 report due 25 October. Q3'23e net sales SEK 2,119m, EBITA SEK 233m. We reiterate HOLD, TP SEK 30 (33).

Sector top picks post Q2 reports

Mid- and large caps beat expectations and got paid for it. Small estimate revisions as visibility remains low. Valuations in the sector offer opportunities.

Keeps mitigating headwinds

Q2: operational savings were significant. We leave EBITA unchanged on a lower top line. Reiterate HOLD and TP of SEK 33.

Strong cash flow likely to be the takeaway

Waiting on the world to change

Q2 report due on 14 July. HOLD and await a better entry point.

Holding out for a delayed spring

Q1'23: soft market development. We lower EBITA by 2-11% for '23e-'25e. Reiterate HOLD, sentiment likely to remain soft.

Where did the DIY market go?

Writing's on the wall, can it be painted over?

Q1 report due on 25 April. Q1'23e net sales SEK 1,061m, EBITA of SEK -98m. HOLD and await a better entry point.

H1 looks soft, but could be the trough

Efficiency improvements now seen in P&L. Inventories sequentially less pressing. We highlight Boozt, RVRC, and Lyko.