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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
04/18/24 April 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
ABB ABB LTD.
NIBE.B-SE NIBE ... (+17)

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

ABB ABB LTD.
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
METSO-FI METSO
04/17/24 April 17, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Karl Bokvist
04/12/24 April 12, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
ABB ABB LTD.
NIBE.B-SE NIBE ... (+18)

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

ABB ABB LTD.
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
METSO-FI METSO
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE

It gets worse before it gets better – SELL

Deteriorating market conditions, high earnings uncertainty, '24e-'26e adj. EBIT down 41-26%; -3% CAGR '23-'26e, down to SELL (Hold), TP SEK 40 (64).

04/04/24 April 4, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
03/21/24 March 21, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+17)

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
03/19/24 March 19, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+17)

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
03/08/24 March 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
03/04/24 March 4, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
02/27/24 February 27, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+17)

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
02/21/24 February 21, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE

Partly expected, still concerning

In-line results, cautious outlook, earnings pressure in '24e. '24e-'25e adj. EBIT down 12-8%; 7% CAGR '23-'26e. Keep HOLD, TP SEK 64 (69).

02/19/24 February 19, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
02/16/24 February 16, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Karl Bokvist
02/12/24 February 12, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
02/08/24 February 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Karl Bokvist
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
01/31/24 January 31, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
01/29/24 January 29, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
01/24/24 January 24, 2024 1 EN
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