Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.
Q1 results due on 25 April at 13:00 CET. We expect orders -9%, margin of 16.7% (16.9%). Forceful LT trends justify high valuation. BUY, TP SEK 440 (420).
Outside of construction, most end-markets were solid, pricing and margins held up, and cash flow was strong. We think Alfa Laval, SKF and Volvo look attractive in H1’24.
Divisional deviations, but overall close to expectations. Adj. EBITA +2-3% on backlog visibility and FX. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY.
Earnings hold up on big backlogs; PMIs have turned, but only slowly. Meanwhile, stocks have bounced, multiples back to normal. We favour Alfa Laval, Epiroc, Metso, SKF and Volvo.
Margins bounced back and orders held up. Further margin gains supported by backlog, load and savings. Strong exposure now at reasonable price - up to BUY.