3% adj. EBITA beat, strong cash flow

Enters US Ref market with sizeable M&A

Heads-up for report 25 April

Serial acquirers: Earnings trough, M&A in focus

Return to organic growth in Q3e, increased M&A activity likely. '24e-'26e EBITA/EPS up 3% (FX +1%, M&A +2%). ~21x EBITA limits upside, but mild downturn+M&A could offer support.

Solid top line, but softer earnings

Q1 report 25 April, 08:00 CET, '24e-'26e EBITA up 2%; 9% CAGR '23-'26e, keep BUY, TP SEK 340 (325)

SE HPs: Weakness now clearly visible

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Valuation reflects recovery - HOLD

HOLD (Buy), TP SEK 165 (160), '24e-'26e EBITA down 1-0%; 9% CAGR '23-'26e, Q1 report Tues 23 Apr 12:00 CET

BEIJ/NIBE: US HVAC - A welcome return to growth

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

Tough comps but LT trends intact

Q1 results due on 25 April at 13:00 CET. We expect orders -9%, margin of 16.7% (16.9%). Forceful LT trends justify high valuation. BUY, TP SEK 440 (420).

Valuation still attractive after recent run

Q1e: EBIT -14% y-o-y, flat volume guidance for Q2. '25e earnings lift still not reflected in the share price. We raise our TP to SEK 136 (124) and keep BUY.

It gets worse before it gets better – SELL

Deteriorating market conditions, high earnings uncertainty, '24e-'26e adj. EBIT down 41-26%; -3% CAGR '23-'26e, down to SELL (Hold), TP SEK 40 (64).

DE: Slow start to new application program

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

NL/UK: Applications grow well y-o-y

BUY before the 2025 earnings lift is priced in

Ongoing expansions to lift earnings, notably 2025, which should be priced in to the share during 2024. Has not seen the same re-rating as other short cyclicals. BUY.

EU HP market -5% 2023, "downwards trend to continue way into 2024"

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.