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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Karl Bokvist

Valuation still attractive after recent run

Q1e: EBIT -14% y-o-y, flat volume guidance for Q2. '25e earnings lift still not reflected in the share price. We raise our TP to SEK 136 (124) and keep BUY.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Karl Bokvist

BUY before the 2025 earnings lift is priced in

Ongoing expansions to lift earnings, notably 2025, which should be priced in to the share during 2024. Has not seen the same re-rating as other short cyclicals. BUY.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Karl Bokvist

Profitability improvements continue

Volume guidance for Q1 marginally softer than expected. EBIT down 3%, less effect on EPS due to lowered financials. Wider than usual valuation gap to auto supplier peers, BUY.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Karl Bokvist

Notable earnings lift expected in Q4

Q4e: significant earnings lift, we are +10% vs. consensus. Change of analyst, '24e EBIT down 4%, '25e fairly unchanged. Trading at 15% discount to peers. BUY, TP of SEK 126 (120).

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Passed with distinction

~20% adj. EBIT beat, Q4 looks good as well, '23e-'25e adj. EBIT up 7-1%; 18% CAGR '22-'25e, keep BUY, TP SEK 120 unchanged

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Strong profitability should continue

Q3 report due Thursday, 26 October, 07:30 CET. 2023e-2025e EBIT up 0-2%. Keep BUY and TP of SEK 120.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Solid in a tough environment

Solid Q2 (6-7% EBIT beat), but weaker Q3 outlook. '23e/'24e/'25e EBIT down 2/4/2%; 17% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep BUY, TP SEK 120 (125).

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Stable volumes, but strong earnings

Q2 report due Friday, 14 July, 07:30 CET. 2023e-2025e EBIT up 3-5%. We expect EBIT of SEK 426m, up 23% y-o-y. Keep BUY and TP of SEK 125.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

21% EBIT growth bodes well for 2023

Impressive margins behind 22% EBIT beat. '23e-'25e EBIT up 9-3%; 16% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep BUY, TP SEK 125 (115).

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Higher margins and improved FCF in focus

Q1 report due Thursday, 27 April. We raise 2023e-2025e adj. EBIT by 3-1% and reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 115 (110).

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
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