Serial acquirers: Earnings trough, M&A in focus

Return to organic growth in Q3e, increased M&A activity likely. '24e-'26e EBITA/EPS up 3% (FX +1%, M&A +2%). ~21x EBITA limits upside, but mild downturn+M&A could offer support.

Solid top line, but softer earnings

Q1 report 25 April, 08:00 CET, '24e-'26e EBITA up 2%; 9% CAGR '23-'26e, keep BUY, TP SEK 340 (325)

Don't miss the positive trend

Strong demand, but softer org. earnings and FCF, '24e-'25e EBITA up 3%; 7% CAGR '23-'26e, Keep BUY, TP SEK 325

Strong sales, but 1% adj. EBITA miss

Sizeable M&A activity resumed

Serial acquirers: Slowdown caps upside

Stable demand, but deceleration continues, '24e-'25e EBITA unchanged, neg. risk/reward after strong multiple uplift since Q3.

>30% earnings growth also in Q4e

Q4 due Friday 9 Feb, '23e EBITA +1%, '24e-'25e down 2-3%; 17% CAGR in '22-'25e, keep BUY, TP of SEK 325 unchanged.

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

Serial acquirers Q3 recap: A steady deceleration

Q3 recap: deceleration continues, but better org. sales, 5% EBITA beat, '23e-'25e EBITA up 2-1% post-Q3, sector up 4% YTD (EPS up 14%), now trading at 16.9x F12m EV/EBITA, 3% below 10Y avg.

High earnings growth set to continue

4% adj. EBITA beat, 20% org. sales, good FCF, '23e-'25e adj. EBITA down 1-0%, 18% CAGR '22-'25e, keep BUY, TP SEK 325 unchanged

4% adj. EBITA beat, organic acceleration

Serial acquirers: Quality not yet at a discount

One final double-digit growth quarter, with org. growth to turn neg. in Q4e. '23e-'25e EBITA down 0-2%, EPS down 1-4%. Entry point increasingly attractive: ADDT up to BUY (Hold).

Set for a strong second half

Q3 report due Friday 27 October. 2023e-2025e adj. EBITA down 1-0%; 18% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep BUY, TP of SEK 325 (355).

HVAC&R news: EU reaches revised F-gas deal

Deceleration triggers sector correction

Q2 recap: deceleration visible as org. sales miss, 3% EBITA beat, '23e-'25e EBITA down 0-2% post-Q2, sector up 8% YTD (EPS up 11%), now trading at 15.9x F12m EV/EBITA, 3% below 10Y avg.

Strong result bodes well for H2'23

6% adj. EBITA beat, stronger organic, low FCF. '23e-'25e adj. EBITA down 1-3% due to FX. 18% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep BUY, TP SEK 355 unchanged.

6% adj. EBITA beat as growth accelerates

Serial acquirers: Strong, but trending down

Higher expectations this time around, deceleration visible. '23e-'25e EBITA up 3-4% (FX 3%, M&A 1%), EPS up 2-3%. We remain neutral-to-slightly negative: LIFCO up to HOLD (Sell).

Organic acceleration, >40% total growth

Q2 report due Friday 21 July. 2023e-2025e adj. EBITA up 3-6%. Q2 sales of SEK 1,175m, 16% y-o-y org., adj. EBITA SEK 226m, 41% y-o-y, 19.2% margin (18.9%). Keep BUY, TP SEK 355 (350).

Amped up

Organic outperformance vs. peers should support a rerating in '23e. Rolec the main positive, remaining portfolio should prove resilient. 14-11x EBITA '23e-'25e, potential to drive >20% EBITA growth. BUY.