Another shareholder friendly move

Increased confidence in cash flow story

Q4e: significantly better adj. EBIT and FCF y-o-y. Minor estimate changes. Reiterate BUY, TP raise d to SEK 30 (29) on better visibility.

Kingdom Come 2 reveal on 18 April?

Balance sheet in shape, up to BUY

Balance sheet de-risked and FCF revised up after divestments. 40% discount to peers is excessive, should narrow as FCF improves. Up to BUY (Hold), trades at 6.4x-5.8x adj. EBIT on '24/25e-'25/26e.

What is left and what is it worth?

Situation improved, but too early to be excited

Saber deal accretive, but not enough to change the equity story. ND/adj. EBIT down from 2.2x to 2.0x, and FCF unchanged on '24/'25e. Short-term estimates look elevated and pipeline soft, HOLD.

Divestment will reduce debt and lift cash flow

Board games tracker slightly softer in February

We track web traffic on major global board game resellers. Web traffic 0% y-o-y in February, on a rolling three-month basis. Release of STAR WARS: Unlimited should drive market share gains.

Reported Saber deal would be accretive

Expectations could come down a bit further

We think the fear of a share issue is exaggerated but Q4 could miss, and valuation is in line with peers. HOLD reiterated, TP of SEK 21 (25); 8x EV/EBITDA-capex '24/25e.

Adj. EBIT in line, FCF up, scraps debt target

Gaming: Apple to slash App Store fee

Expect a stable quarter with good cash flow

No material estimate changes ahead of Q3 (15 Feb). We see good cash flow in Q3, but more cautious outlook for Q4. Trading at 10x-8x EV/EBITDA-capex on '24/25e-'25/26e: HOLD.

Board games tracker indicates growth in December

Looking past the restructuring

We see potential for an improved ROI after the restructuring rendering SEK 6-8bn in annual FCF and a SEK 35-40 share price. But in our base case (maintained ROI), the share is fairly valued.

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

Tabletop maintaining a positive trend

Game Pass deal leak indicate 5% upside to Q3e

Space Marine 2 delayed until H2 2024

Solid report, but the questions remain

Management is zeroing in on a divestment, most likely Gearbox. Substantial cuts to FCF while adj. EBIT up 1%. We reiterate HOLD; TP of SEK 23 on high uncertainty.