Another shareholder friendly move

Increased confidence in cash flow story

Q4e: significantly better adj. EBIT and FCF y-o-y. Minor estimate changes. Reiterate BUY, TP raise d to SEK 30 (29) on better visibility.

It will take more than sunny islands

Q1e: 1% organic growth, adj. EBIT -16% y-o-y. Estimates up slightly, but growth to decelerate in Q2. Fairly valued at 7x EV/adj. EBIT on '24e : HOLD.

When will we see new buybacks?

We forecast stable sales development for MTG in Q1 with slightly improved organic growth of 5% (up vs. 3% in Q4'23) mainly because of easier comps in Tower Defence.

Kingdom Come 2 reveal on 18 April?

Balance sheet in shape, up to BUY

Balance sheet de-risked and FCF revised up after divestments. 40% discount to peers is excessive, should narrow as FCF improves. Up to BUY (Hold), trades at 6.4x-5.8x adj. EBIT on '24/25e-'25/26e.

What is left and what is it worth?

Situation improved, but too early to be excited

Saber deal accretive, but not enough to change the equity story. ND/adj. EBIT down from 2.2x to 2.0x, and FCF unchanged on '24/'25e. Short-term estimates look elevated and pipeline soft, HOLD.

Divestment will reduce debt and lift cash flow

Board games tracker slightly softer in February

We track web traffic on major global board game resellers. Web traffic 0% y-o-y in February, on a rolling three-month basis. Release of STAR WARS: Unlimited should drive market share gains.

Reported Saber deal would be accretive

Expectations could come down a bit further

We think the fear of a share issue is exaggerated but Q4 could miss, and valuation is in line with peers. HOLD reiterated, TP of SEK 21 (25); 8x EV/EBITDA-capex '24/25e.

Adj. EBIT in line, FCF up, scraps debt target

Positioned to accelerate, up to BUY

We lift EBITA by 8-10% on '24e-'25e on better cost control. Shows again that it can do both accretive acquisitions and divestments. EV/EBITA 6x-4x on '24e-'26e; up to BUY (Hold).

Beat driven by lower costs

We remain cautious on the growth outlook

Encouraging that management sees better market conditions, but too early to say if the higher investments will bear fruit. We reiterate HOLD; trading at 9-10% FCF yield '24e-'25e.

Slight growth improvement but at the expense of profitability

Gaming: Apple to slash App Store fee

Expect a stable quarter with good cash flow

No material estimate changes ahead of Q3 (15 Feb). We see good cash flow in Q3, but more cautious outlook for Q4. Trading at 10x-8x EV/EBITDA-capex on '24/25e-'25/26e: HOLD.

Minor improvements, but trend still negative

Q4 due on 7 February; we are in line with consensus. Negative revisions continue, we cut '24e-'25e adj. EBIT by 6%. We stick to HOLD and cut our TP to SEK 12 (13).