Another shareholder friendly move

Increased confidence in cash flow story

Q4e: significantly better adj. EBIT and FCF y-o-y. Minor estimate changes. Reiterate BUY, TP raise d to SEK 30 (29) on better visibility.

It will take more than sunny islands

Q1e: 1% organic growth, adj. EBIT -16% y-o-y. Estimates up slightly, but growth to decelerate in Q2. Fairly valued at 7x EV/adj. EBIT on '24e : HOLD.

When will we see new buybacks?

We forecast stable sales development for MTG in Q1 with slightly improved organic growth of 5% (up vs. 3% in Q4'23) mainly because of easier comps in Tower Defence.

We were wrong about Cities 2 comeback

Weakened Cities outlook sees us cut '24e-'26e EBIT 24%, 13% & 3%. 2024 now looks to be an even more difficult year, with falling earnings. Share -22% YTD reflects this; better '25 outlook means we stay BUYers.

Cities 2 mess continues

Kingdom Come 2 reveal on 18 April?

Will Paradox resume support of Imperator: Rome?

Players are urging Paradox to bring back Imperator: Rome. Activity and sales for the games at multi-year highs, despite no support. A low-risk investment to add the game back to the active portfolio, in our view.

Balance sheet in shape, up to BUY

Balance sheet de-risked and FCF revised up after divestments. 40% discount to peers is excessive, should narrow as FCF improves. Up to BUY (Hold), trades at 6.4x-5.8x adj. EBIT on '24/25e-'25/26e.

What is left and what is it worth?

Major Europa Universalis 5 news

Situation improved, but too early to be excited

Saber deal accretive, but not enough to change the equity story. ND/adj. EBIT down from 2.2x to 2.0x, and FCF unchanged on '24/'25e. Short-term estimates look elevated and pipeline soft, HOLD.

Divestment will reduce debt and lift cash flow

Board games tracker slightly softer in February

We track web traffic on major global board game resellers. Web traffic 0% y-o-y in February, on a rolling three-month basis. Release of STAR WARS: Unlimited should drive market share gains.

Reported Saber deal would be accretive

Millennia to be released earlier than expected

Expectations could come down a bit further

We think the fear of a share issue is exaggerated but Q4 could miss, and valuation is in line with peers. HOLD reiterated, TP of SEK 21 (25); 8x EV/EBITDA-capex '24/25e.

Adj. EBIT in line, FCF up, scraps debt target

Weather the storm and be rewarded

Weak quarter and soft outlook