Merger completion getting closer

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Q1 was strong - FCF ahead

Q1 was a big relief. We are confident that the outlook is bright. Attractive valuation for combined entity: BUY, TP NOK of 180 (170).

Q1 beat from both TGS and PGS

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

2024: A year of discipline and FCF focus

High grading MC investments lead to more FCF, albeit lower EPS. '24e FCF to NOK 12.8/s (5.0) on lower investments. Attractive valuation. A clear BUY, TP NOK 170 (unchanged).

Looks like a fairly neutral report

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

Late-sales will rebound in 2024

Q4 was a big disappointment, but note the lumpiness. We do not think it is structural — late-sales will rebound in 2024. Attractive valuation for combined company: BUY, TP unchanged at NOK 170.

Q4 miss creates great buying opportunity

Q4 was a big disappointment, but note the lumpiness. We do not think it is structural — late-sales will rebound in 2024. Attractive valuation for combined company: BUY, TP NOK 170 (200).

TGS miss, PGS beat

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

TGS-PGS merger getting closer

The finalisation of the merger seems likely in March-April. Only marginal estimate changes post - Q3. Attractive valuation for combined company: BUY, TP NOK 200 (190).

Segment estimates slightly up after positive Q3

'23e and '24e segment/PoC EBITDA up 6% and 1% after strong Q3 revenues. We do not think TGS-PGS merger is at risk despite soft Q3 from PGS. Reiterate BUY, TP NOK 190.

Q3 revenues 11-13% above estimates.

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Norway: Best ideas Q3'23

Best ideas are MOWI, ORK, STB, BRG, FRO, ELMERA, TGS, VÅR and ZAP

Only minor estimate changes post-Q2

TGS has pre-announced its Q2 revenues and there were no big surprises in the rest of the Q2 figures, or in the outlook.

Q2 - a netural report

Resetting estimates, but still attractive