Renewable Weekly – 22 April 2024

This week, we're taking a closer look at Ørsted. Despite challenges in the last few years, we now argue Ørsted is back on the right path. We rate the stock a BUY, and set a 12-month TP of DKK 450/sh.

Back on the right path

Q1e EBITDA up 9% y-o-y on increased offshore capacity. Fundamentals improving, good growth visibility near-term. P/NAV ~1.03x, but ~35% upside if mgmt . delivers on 2026 targets.

NY pulls 4GW offshore wind on GE turbine downsizing

Renewable Weekly – 12 April 2024

This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.

Renewable Weekly – 4 April 2024

This week, we take a look at cost developments in the offshore wind supply chain.

Hard to see positive near-term triggers

Q1e: we expect adj. EBIT of EUR 3m, -93% vs. cons. EUR 40m. We cut '25e and '26e adj. EBIT ests by 9-11% on lower orders. '24e P/E 41.2x vs. historical 12m fwd range of 15-20x – HOLD.

Muted order intake in Q1

Renewable Weekly – 27 March 2024

Of our basket of 41 stocks, returns were positive for 33 and negative for 8 over the week. Median performance 4.1%, average 9.9%. Sub-sectors: Wind (3%), Solar (7%), Hydrogen (7%), Cleantech/other (2%).

Renewable Weekly - ​21 March 2024

This week we highlight the offshore wind auction for Sørlige Nordsjø II (SNII). The winning bid was from the consortium Ventyr (Parkwind and Ingka Investments) at a price of NOK 1.15/kWh.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Renewable Weekly – 11 March 2024

This week, we take a look at the new rules for deposit return systems in EU, following a provisional political agreement between the European Council and European Parliament representatives last week.

Renewable Weekly – 4 March 2024

On aggregate, the R&Ct stocks underperformed MSCI Nordic by ~13% throughout the season (26 Jan to 4 Mar)

Sunrise set for a price hike

Renewable Weekly – 27 February 2024

This week, we would like to highlight one of our key long ideas in the sector: Volue (BUY, TP 31.5), which is a Norwegian technology company.

Renewable Weekly – 19 February 2024

This week, we summarise the key takeaways from the Nordic Renewables & Cleantech companies that have reported Q4 figures so far.

Smooth sailing

Smaller positive estimate changes after Q4. WTIVs “sold out” for '23-'25, Cruise trajectory solid. Attractive valuation levels: P/core NAV 0.8x, '24e P/E 14.6x.

Q4 first take: better across segments

Margins de-risked, but can growth keep up?

Underlying GM almost back up to ~2018 levels, supporting recovery, but orders must go ATH in '24e to see ~20% volume growth in '25e. Stock not cheap: '24e P/E ~41x, dropping to ~20x in '25e: HOLD.

Q4 first take: good enough

Q4 first take: better on key items