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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Deleveraging on the agenda

CEPS down on fewer rate cuts. Focus on capex and reducing debt. Trading at 16% NAV discount and 15x CEPS, HOLD, TP SEK 75 (65).

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Sweden is set for a comeback

Swedish economy set to outperform in 2025, with buoyant conditions for real estate. Tables have turned since January – more BUYs than SELLs.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Deleveraging fast

Gearing down 3-4pp p.a. in '24-'26e, which is great for bond holders but incremental returns for equity investors are too low.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Saved by the bell – now what?

Lower risks of both rights issues and covenant breaches more than reflected after the recent rally. P/CEPS of ~18x with limited earnings growth; four downgrades.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Incremental return is too low

FX and interest rates affect estimates. Focus on capex and reducing debt. Limited short-term potential — HOLD.

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