Q1: EBITDA above, no big changes to guidance

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Higher oil price offset by increased costs

Higher oil price assumptions offset by increased costs. Dussafu ramp-up and possible Maromba FID in focus for '24. We prefer other E&Ps at the moment; reiterate HOLD, TP NOK 27.

Q4 report in line with expectations

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

Focus in '24: Dussafu, possible Maromba FID

Updating with trading update ahead of Q4. Focus in '24 on Dussafu performance and possible Maromba FID. We prefer other E&Ps at the moment; reiterate HOLD, TP NOK 27.

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 24 November

In our 24 November Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

Dissapointing Dussafu guidance lowers ests.

Q3 numbers above ABGSCe, but focus was on weak Dussafu guidance for '24. Reiterate HOLD, TP down to NOK 27 (29).

Q3 numbers above but soft production guidance

Increased operational diversification

Estimates slightly down ahead of Q3. Increased operational diversification through Golfinho. Reiterate HOLD, TP of NOK 29/sh.

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 29 September

In our 29 September Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

Golfinho transaction approaches closing

Q2 in line with expectations. Golfinho closing could be imminent. Reiterate HOLD, TP NOK 29/sh.

Q2 in line and Golfinho closing expected imminently

Hibiscus/Ruche ramp-up progressing nicely

Lowered estimates on delayed Golfinho start-up. Production ramp-up progressing nicely. Reiterate HOLD, TP of NOK 29/sh.

Crude Quarterly Q2'23: a tad down on oil price assumptions

We have lowered our near-term oil price assumptions for Q3'23-2026e to USD 85 (90) because of slightly lower call-on-OPEC estimates, which is mainly a result of higher assumptions for Russian oil export.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 23 June

We lower our near-term oil price assumptions to USD 82/bbl (88) in '23e and USD 85/bbl (90) in '24-'26e. We lower our gas price assumptions for '23e to USD 15.4/mmBTU (17.1). See the overview of the estimate changes below and our Crude Quarterly report for more details.

Only small adjustments after Q1

Q1 in line with expectations. Production guidance and outlook reiterated. We reiterate HOLD and keep our TP at NOK 29/sh.

Important milestone reached

Lowered estimates on delayed Golfinho start-up. First oil reached at Hibiscus/Ruche. Reiterate HOLD, TP NOK 29/sh.