Serial acquirers: Earnings trough, M&A in focus

Return to organic growth in Q3e, increased M&A activity likely. '24e-'26e EBITA/EPS up 3% (FX +1%, M&A +2%). ~21x EBITA limits upside, but mild downturn+M&A could offer support.

Demolition weakness still in focus

Q1 rep. Wed 24 Apr, 07:30 CET, '24e-'26e EBITA up 4-5%; 4% CAGR '23-'26e, keep SELL, TP SEK 245 (230)

Quality again, but not out of the woods

Strong earnings and M&A, but slower org. growth, '24e-'25e EBITA up 3%; 2% CAGR in '23-'26e, keep SELL, TP SEK 230 (220).

Strong margins, miss on org sales

Heads-up for report 2 February

Serial acquirers: Slowdown caps upside

Stable demand, but deceleration continues, '24e-'25e EBITA unchanged, neg. risk/reward after strong multiple uplift since Q3.

Rich valuation given cyclical risk

Down to SELL (Hold), TP SEK 220 (205), '23e-'25e EBITA up 2-0%; 6% CAGR, Q4 2 Feb

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

Serial acquirers: As cyclical as before?

We argue that the 'Big-4' (Addtech, Indutrade, Lagercrantz, Lifco) serial acquirers are inherently cyclical and should follow the overall trend that we see among other capital goods names, given the extended period of weakening PMIs.

Serial acquirers Q3 recap: A steady deceleration

Q3 recap: deceleration continues, but better org. sales, 5% EBITA beat, '23e-'25e EBITA up 2-1% post-Q3, sector up 4% YTD (EPS up 14%), now trading at 16.9x F12m EV/EBITA, 3% below 10Y avg.

Top quality as usual, but mind the backlog

10% adj. EBITA beat on better growth and margins. '23e-'25e EBITA up 4-2%, 6% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep HOLD, TP of SEK 205 unchanged.

10% EBITA beat, broad-based strength

Serial acquirers: Quality not yet at a discount

One final double-digit growth quarter, with org. growth to turn neg. in Q4e. '23e-'25e EBITA down 0-2%, EPS down 1-4%. Entry point increasingly attractive: ADDT up to BUY (Hold).

Cyclical deceleration to continue

Q3 report due Friday, 20 October, '23e-'25e EBITA +2%/-1%/-3%. Keep HOLD, TP SEK 205 (210)

Deceleration triggers sector correction

Q2 recap: deceleration visible as org. sales miss, 3% EBITA beat, '23e-'25e EBITA down 0-2% post-Q2, sector up 8% YTD (EPS up 11%), now trading at 15.9x F12m EV/EBITA, 3% below 10Y avg.

Industrial weakening now visible

4% adj. EBITA beat, but org. growth turns negative, '23e-'25e EBITA down 0/4/3%; 6% CAGR '22-'25e. Keep HOLD, TP SEK 210 (215).

4% EBITA beat, but negative org. growth

Serial acquirers: Strong, but trending down

Higher expectations this time around, deceleration visible. '23e-'25e EBITA up 3-4% (FX 3%, M&A 1%), EPS up 2-3%. We remain neutral-to-slightly negative: LIFCO up to HOLD (Sell).

Normalised valuation for a quality pick

Up to HOLD (Sell), TP SEK 215 (210). 2023e-2025e EBITA up 4-6% (FX 3-5%, M&A 1%). Q2 report due Friday 14 July, 07:30 CET.

Strong profits while orders normalise

Strong margins behind 11% EBIT beat, orders normalise, EBITA up 6-3%, keep SELL, TP of SEK 210 (205).