Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Q1e beat and upbeat outlook

We are +40% vs. cons. on Q1e EBITDA. Supportive market at least until '26e, setting the stage for ATH profits. '24e-'25e EPS up 2-3%. BUY, TP NOK 21 (20.5).

Feb sales 7% better on high load

Feb ticket revenues +7% beat on higher load/yield

A game changer

Strong demand, higher prices. Tight supply on low aircraft deliveries. Analysing Boeing & Airbus, we see a tight aircraft market next 2 years. '24e/'25e EPS up ~25%. BUY, TP NOK 20.5 (16).

Q4 significantly better - guidance even stronger

Flying start to '24

Jan ticket revenues +7% beat on higher load/yield

Better Q4 and EasJet sees strong demand

Prepped for speed

Dec: Impressive load and yield

December ticket revenues 5.8% beat on higher load/yield. CEO: "We continue to see solid bookings"

Nov: Better load /yield. Strong demand

November ticket revenues, 7% beat on higher load/yield. CEO: "We continue to see strong demand"

October sales higher

October ticket revenues of NOK 2.0bn, 7% beat on higher capacity (load/yield in-line)

The runway is clearing

Q3: EBIT 7% better on stronger top line. Robust forward bookings and full year guidance gives relief. Underlying '23e EBIT up 4% . BUY, TP NOK 12.

Q3 beat, upbeat guidance

EBIT 1% above on higher revenue. Guides '23 EBIT NOK 1.9bn, +7% ahead of cons. ¨23 EBIT up 7%

Q3e record, but lower visibility

Q3e: Record earnings, but we are in line with consensus. Lower visibility due to seasonality. '23e-'24e EPS down ~6.5% on higher fuel costs. BUY, TP NOK 12 (14).

Another cost hit

Q2: 7% weaker on higher costs. Strong top-line momentum continuing, but costs an issue. '23e EPS down 8.5% on higher costs. BUY, TP NOK 14 (15).

Earnings below on higher costs

Clean Q1 numbers in-line, better CF and upbeat outlook, Jun-Aug ticket prices +25% yoy, cons probably at +10%

July 7% higher sales

Very strong May traffic stats with ticket revenues of NOK 979bn, 18% above our estimate (NOK 832bn) and probably 14-18% better than cons. Both load and yield are materially better:

Acquiring Widerøe

NAS is acquiring Widerøe. Consolidation starting. Buying at EV /EBIT 8x and below 4x incl. synergies. Strengthening NAS' market position.

Record quarters next

Q2: in line with cons. Strong top-line momentum but weak NOK hits costs. '23e EPS down 2.3%. BUY, TP NOK 15 (16).

May 5% higher sales

Very strong May traffic stats with ticket revenues of NOK 979bn, 18% above our estimate (NOK 832bn) and probably 14-18% better than cons. Both load and yield are materially better: