Repricing effects: gradual for '24e, full in '25e

Q1e: Underlying UW inline, beat on reported UW from run-offs. Adj. EPS up by 2% for '24e, unchanged for '25e & 2% for '26e. Trading at an unwarranted capital-adj. P/E of ~15% – BUY.

Q1 should be seen as a relief

Nordic non-life: Q1e - frequency & price hikes

Cold start, storms and snow set the stage for higher frequency claims. Underl. claims improved from last year's repricing and changed terms. Negative risk/reward in both Tryg and Top from UW & financials.

Expect buybacks to start soon

Q1e: tough Nordic weather a headwind, Hastings positive. Adj. EPS '24e -2% and '25e -1% amid premiums (FX impact). The best Nordic underwriter should trade at a premium to peers: BUY.

Marked by bad weather and expensive fire

Q1: Extraordinary weather and a large loss (Liseberg). Adj. '24e down 4% driven by weak Q1 and FX headwind. Still trading at an undeserved 10-12% discount on capital-adjusted P/E. BUY.

Repricing should pay off in 2025

Repricing and changed terms & conditions should start to pay off but we are concerned frequency claims will delay positive outcome. Adj. EPS'24e -12%, 25e +3%, and lower total yield. HOLD.

Post CMD lunch: A more upbeat message

Sampo expects margins and operating EPS to grow. Supporting a closer to EUR 5bn deployable capital. Deserve a premium, not a rebate. BUY.

Excess capital distribution to follow

Financial targets improved in line with our expectations. We add amortisation of Hastings GW to our adj EPS = Oper.EPS. The best underwriter should trade at a premium, not a discount. BUY.

CMD: A further touch of improvement

New targets well within reach, consensus could lift 1-2% post the CMD. Targets'24-26: Op. EPS growth >7%, Group CR

Could we get hints of capital distribution?

We expect just a small tightening of group targets at the CMD. Adj. EPS '24e up 2% (financials) and '25e down 2% (SBB). If P&C's overcapitalisation will support LT capital distribution

Years of repricing reaps benefits

Underl. CR of 86.9%, 1.2pp ahead of ABGSCe, reported 4.7pp better. Adj EPS'24e-'25e both up +2% on underlying improvements. Cap.adj. P/E'25e of 12x (discount of 12% to peers) and yield of 26.3%. BUY.

Much stronger UW & financials

Adj net profit beat of 18%/10% vs ABGSCe/Vara cons. If P&C CR 83.1% (incl. 5pp of run-offs), underl UW better (discounting). Cons. 24e-25e pos 1-2% revisions (underwriting), stock up 1-3%

Heads-up for Q4-report, 8 February

Estimates seem to have troughed - BUY

Q4: net profit in line with expectations (better UW, weaker financials). Adj. EPS up by 1% for '24e (repricing), unchanged '25e. Capital-adj. P/E in '24e of 14.1x & '25e of 12.5x, -6-7% vs peers.

Underlying UW in line driven by corporates

Adj. net profit DKK 1.1bn, inline with us and +2% vs cons. Solvency 197%, support a jump in running DPS and a share BB. Stock likely up 3-5% today, minor cons.revision as at '24 guidance

Price increases to give effect during 2025

Q4'23: CR of 92.2% (weather- and frequency-driven). Adj. EPS '24-'25e down 9% and 10% (UW & financials). We reiterate HOLD, TP to NOK 170 (185).

Weather and motor frequency to hurt

Adj. PTP -13% vs IR cons, -9% vs ABGSCe, as reported CR 92.2%. Frequency for motor and housing hit the underlying UW as well. Cons. est. -0% to -5% amid frequency; stock -3% to -6%

Heads-up for Q4 report, 25 January

Heads-up for Q4 report, 24 January

Non-life: Q4e impacted by rates and weather

Larger changes to interest rate and colder weather are main topics. Underl. CR improved, but interest rates affect both CR & financials. Prefer Tryg & Sampo (both BUY) over GJF (HOLD) & Top (SELL).