Repricing effects: gradual for '24e, full in '25e

Q1e: Underlying UW inline, beat on reported UW from run-offs. Adj. EPS up by 2% for '24e, unchanged for '25e & 2% for '26e. Trading at an unwarranted capital-adj. P/E of ~15% – BUY.

Q1 should be seen as a relief

Nordic non-life: Q1e - frequency & price hikes

Cold start, storms and snow set the stage for higher frequency claims. Underl. claims improved from last year's repricing and changed terms. Negative risk/reward in both Tryg and Top from UW & financials.

Marked by bad weather and expensive fire

Q1: Extraordinary weather and a large loss (Liseberg). Adj. '24e down 4% driven by weak Q1 and FX headwind. Still trading at an undeserved 10-12% discount on capital-adjusted P/E. BUY.

Repricing should pay off in 2025

Repricing and changed terms & conditions should start to pay off but we are concerned frequency claims will delay positive outcome. Adj. EPS'24e -12%, 25e +3%, and lower total yield. HOLD.

Estimates seem to have troughed - BUY

Q4: net profit in line with expectations (better UW, weaker financials). Adj. EPS up by 1% for '24e (repricing), unchanged '25e. Capital-adj. P/E in '24e of 14.1x & '25e of 12.5x, -6-7% vs peers.

Underlying UW in line driven by corporates

Adj. net profit DKK 1.1bn, inline with us and +2% vs cons. Solvency 197%, support a jump in running DPS and a share BB. Stock likely up 3-5% today, minor cons.revision as at '24 guidance

Price increases to give effect during 2025

Q4'23: CR of 92.2% (weather- and frequency-driven). Adj. EPS '24-'25e down 9% and 10% (UW & financials). We reiterate HOLD, TP to NOK 170 (185).

Weather and motor frequency to hurt

Adj. PTP -13% vs IR cons, -9% vs ABGSCe, as reported CR 92.2%. Frequency for motor and housing hit the underlying UW as well. Cons. est. -0% to -5% amid frequency; stock -3% to -6%

Heads-up for Q4 report, 25 January

Heads-up for Q4 report, 24 January

Non-life: Q4e impacted by rates and weather

Larger changes to interest rate and colder weather are main topics. Underl. CR improved, but interest rates affect both CR & financials. Prefer Tryg & Sampo (both BUY) over GJF (HOLD) & Top (SELL).

EO capital distributed as buybacks

For Q4, we expect an underwriting (UW) result of DKK 1,525m, +4% y-o-y and +1% q-o-q. The main y-o-y driver is a better combined ratio (CR) of 0.4pp.

We lift DPS with the higher earnings

Q4e: repricing should start to pay off with improved y-o-y trend. Adj. EPS '23e unchanged, '24e up 1% & '25e up 3%. Lifting DPS expectations, but still looks fairly valued vs. peers - HOLD.

Norway: further consolidation in the P&C industry

Fremtind Forsikring (14.8%) intends to merge with Eika Forsikring (4%). New market share size of 18.8% (#3) should be acceptable for the competition authority. Likely to make the industry even more rational - positive.

Hosted post CMD breakfast in Oslo

Pruning of portfolio on top of claims handling improvement is key to lift underwriting results '26e to >NOK 7.5bn (from ~6.6bn in 25e). Valuation still reasonable, cons. must lift estimates by 6-7% to get there.

Guide UW-results of NOK 7.5bn by 2026e

New targets within reach with ~3.5% premium growth p.a. and 82% CR. Targets'26: ROE >24%, CR

Ahead of CMD: new targets already discounted?

Could the 22 Nov CMD give us new triggers?

PTP of NOK 1.1bn incl. weather, write downs and higher frequency. Adj. EPS in '23e-'25e up 14%, 3% and 2% (financials and UW).We reiterate HOLD, TP to NOK 163 (160).

Mixed bag: Financials and adj CR better, reported CR worse

Adj. PTP (for IT write down) +18% better, reported -8% vs consensus. Adj CR 40bp better than cons (3.3pp IT adj)., reported 290bp worse. Cons. est. down 0-2% amid weaker frequency; stock down 0-2%.