Nordic non-life: Q1e - frequency & price hikes

Cold start, storms and snow set the stage for higher frequency claims. Underl. claims improved from last year's repricing and changed terms. Negative risk/reward in both Tryg and Top from UW & financials.

Expect buybacks to start soon

Q1e: tough Nordic weather a headwind, Hastings positive. Adj. EPS '24e -2% and '25e -1% amid premiums (FX impact). The best Nordic underwriter should trade at a premium to peers: BUY.

Post CMD lunch: A more upbeat message

Sampo expects margins and operating EPS to grow. Supporting a closer to EUR 5bn deployable capital. Deserve a premium, not a rebate. BUY.

Excess capital distribution to follow

Financial targets improved in line with our expectations. We add amortisation of Hastings GW to our adj EPS = Oper.EPS. The best underwriter should trade at a premium, not a discount. BUY.

CMD: A further touch of improvement

New targets well within reach, consensus could lift 1-2% post the CMD. Targets'24-26: Op. EPS growth >7%, Group CR

Could we get hints of capital distribution?

We expect just a small tightening of group targets at the CMD. Adj. EPS '24e up 2% (financials) and '25e down 2% (SBB). If P&C's overcapitalisation will support LT capital distribution

Years of repricing reaps benefits

Underl. CR of 86.9%, 1.2pp ahead of ABGSCe, reported 4.7pp better. Adj EPS'24e-'25e both up +2% on underlying improvements. Cap.adj. P/E'25e of 12x (discount of 12% to peers) and yield of 26.3%. BUY.

Much stronger UW & financials

Adj net profit beat of 18%/10% vs ABGSCe/Vara cons. If P&C CR 83.1% (incl. 5pp of run-offs), underl UW better (discounting). Cons. 24e-25e pos 1-2% revisions (underwriting), stock up 1-3%

Heads-up for Q4-report, 8 February

Non-life: Q4e impacted by rates and weather

Larger changes to interest rate and colder weather are main topics. Underl. CR improved, but interest rates affect both CR & financials. Prefer Tryg & Sampo (both BUY) over GJF (HOLD) & Top (SELL).

Share buyback opportunities should arise

Q4e: rates to weigh more than tough weather; CR of 87.8%. Adj. EPS '23e -6%, '24e unchanged and '25e +3% (financials). Revise TP to EUR 44.25 (42.8) on estimate revisions and CoE.

Norway: further consolidation in the P&C industry

Fremtind Forsikring (14.8%) intends to merge with Eika Forsikring (4%). New market share size of 18.8% (#3) should be acceptable for the competition authority. Likely to make the industry even more rational - positive.

Hosted post CMD breakfast in Oslo

Pruning of portfolio on top of claims handling improvement is key to lift underwriting results '26e to >NOK 7.5bn (from ~6.6bn in 25e). Valuation still reasonable, cons. must lift estimates by 6-7% to get there.

Ahead of CMD: new targets already discounted?

Higher running yields are supportive

Underl. CR of 84.8% ahead of ABGSCe, coupled with higher yields. Adj EPS'23e-'25e up +17%, +6%, +3% amid CR & yields. Cap.adj. P/E '24e of 14.7x (premium of 3%) and yields of 27.5%

Strong financials, underlying UW in line

Net profit beat of 36% vs. VARA cons. 85% vs ABGSCe. If P&C CR 84.1% (incl. 7.9pp of run-offs), underlying UW in line. Cons. 24e-25e marginally pos 0-2% EPS revisions, stock up 0-2%

Heads-up for Q3 report, 8 November

Non-life: bad weather takes its toll on Q3e

Rain, storms and flooding leave their mark on the quarter. CR for '23e down (weather), stable '24e-'25e levels (pricing discipline). Prefer Tryg, Solid & Sampo (all BUY) over GJF (HOLD), Top (SELL).

More attractive yield given its SBB opportunity

Q3e: weather a notable factor, as in previous quarter. Adj. EPS '23e -10% from weather & finance, '24e-25e from Mandatum. Revise TP to EUR 41.5 (47.5) driven by Mandatum and higher CoE.

What is the new valuation?

"New" Sampo