Repricing effects: gradual for '24e, full in '25e

Q1e: Underlying UW inline, beat on reported UW from run-offs. Adj. EPS up by 2% for '24e, unchanged for '25e & 2% for '26e. Trading at an unwarranted capital-adj. P/E of ~15% – BUY.

Q1 should be seen as a relief

Nordic non-life: Q1e - frequency & price hikes

Cold start, storms and snow set the stage for higher frequency claims. Underl. claims improved from last year's repricing and changed terms. Negative risk/reward in both Tryg and Top from UW & financials.

Marked by bad weather and expensive fire

Q1: Extraordinary weather and a large loss (Liseberg). Adj. '24e down 4% driven by weak Q1 and FX headwind. Still trading at an undeserved 10-12% discount on capital-adjusted P/E. BUY.

Estimates seem to have troughed - BUY

Q4: net profit in line with expectations (better UW, weaker financials). Adj. EPS up by 1% for '24e (repricing), unchanged '25e. Capital-adj. P/E in '24e of 14.1x & '25e of 12.5x, -6-7% vs peers.

Underlying UW in line driven by corporates

Adj. net profit DKK 1.1bn, inline with us and +2% vs cons. Solvency 197%, support a jump in running DPS and a share BB. Stock likely up 3-5% today, minor cons.revision as at '24 guidance

Heads-up for Q4 report, 25 January

Non-life: Q4e impacted by rates and weather

Larger changes to interest rate and colder weather are main topics. Underl. CR improved, but interest rates affect both CR & financials. Prefer Tryg & Sampo (both BUY) over GJF (HOLD) & Top (SELL).

EO capital distributed as buybacks

For Q4, we expect an underwriting (UW) result of DKK 1,525m, +4% y-o-y and +1% q-o-q. The main y-o-y driver is a better combined ratio (CR) of 0.4pp.

Norway: further consolidation in the P&C industry

Fremtind Forsikring (14.8%) intends to merge with Eika Forsikring (4%). New market share size of 18.8% (#3) should be acceptable for the competition authority. Likely to make the industry even more rational - positive.

Hosted post CMD breakfast in Oslo

Pruning of portfolio on top of claims handling improvement is key to lift underwriting results '26e to >NOK 7.5bn (from ~6.6bn in 25e). Valuation still reasonable, cons. must lift estimates by 6-7% to get there.

Ahead of CMD: new targets already discounted?

Share buyback adds to capital distribution

Q3: Adj. PTP of DKK 1.46bn, 20% ahead of expectations. Adj. EPS up by 5% for '23e and ~2% for '24e-'25e. Capital-adj. P/E'24e of 12.9x & '25e of 11.4x, -12% vs peers. BUY.

Share buyback surprise

Net profit DKK 913m, +15% vs cons. - better financials. DKK 1bn of SBB by 31 January surprise positively. Stock likely up 2-5% today, moderate 1-3% cons.revision.

Heads-up for Q3 report, 13 October

Non-life: bad weather takes its toll on Q3e

Rain, storms and flooding leave their mark on the quarter. CR for '23e down (weather), stable '24e-'25e levels (pricing discipline). Prefer Tryg, Solid & Sampo (all BUY) over GJF (HOLD), Top (SELL).

Attractive entry levels after poor performance

Weather events in all Scandinavian countries to hurt reported CR. Adj. EPS'23e down 11% on weather, '24e-'25e up 2-4% on FX. Reiterate BUY but revise TP to DKK 155 (159) given higher CoE.

Underlying combined ratio in line - BUY

Q2: miss from volatile claims & financial items. We trim our estimates due to lower premiums. Capital adj. P/E'23e of 14.8x & '24e of 13x, -11% & -7% vs peers. BUY.

Miss driven by volatile items

Net profit DKK 922m, -13% vs cons. - weaker UW and financials. Softer premium growth of 3.9% (lccy) y-o-y vs. ABG and cons. Stock & cons.est.rev. likely down 1-4% on ‘23e-25e

Insurance: a quarter marked by large losses

Two large losses announced, several not, hurting Q2e CR. Combined ratio (CR) up in '24e-'25e on pricing discipline. Prefer Tryg (BUY) over Sampo & GJF (both HOLD), Top (SELL).