Red Sea effect weighs more than expected

Q1e down on bigger Red Sea effect. 26% above cons. net profit for '25e. TP of NOK 176 (177) – BUY.

Back on track

Net rates of USD 84.4/CBM in March, up 4% from February. ~13% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q1'24e, consensus not updated with Jan-Feb data. Share to trade up 2-4%.

Trading update ~17% below Q1e cons

Net rates of USD 80.9/CBM in February, down 5% from January. ~17% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q1'24e, ~15% downside to FY'24e at current levels. Weak February data, "Red Sea effect" now showing.

Exemplifying how to manage a cycle

100% payout is the key for premium valuation. We are 48% above cons. net profit for '25e. TP NOK 177 (147) – BUY.

19% of market cap out in one go

Adj. EBITDA USD 199m (ABGSC 198, cons 190m). Net rate for January 1% above ABGSCe, but volumes down 15% m-o-m. Stock up 10% today.

Car carriers: Order book is not a threat to 2024e

The car shipping market could crash during 2024, but we do not believe that is likely, despite it being the base case for sell-side consensus.

Too low expectations

Order book at 36% is not enough. 74% above cons. net profit for '25e, but there could be more. TP NOK 147 (152) – BUY.

Little news in trading update, "Red Sea effect" not possible to quanti...

Net rates of USD 82.1/CBM in December, down 2% from November. ~7% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'23e, ~5% upside to FY'24e at current levels. December's data as expected, "Red Sea effect" in Q1 not possible to quantify yet.

Trading update should imply upside to the share price today, but...

Net rates of USD 83.6/CBM in November, down 1.2% from October. ~9% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'23e, ~9% upside to FY'24e.

Another beat, 10% upside to cons Q4e EBITDA

Net rates of USD 84.5/CBM in October, up 5.0% from September. ~10% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'23e, 12% upside to FY'24e. Share price up 3-5% today

Estimates up again

Higher for longer - ABGSCe net rates of USD 86.2/CBM for '24. ABGSCe 42% above cons. for '25e EBITDA. TP up to NOK 152 (140) – BUY.

"Expect Q4 to be another strong quarter"

Adj. EBITDA USD 185m (ABGSC 173, cons 173m). "Global light vehicle market improved markedly in Q3". Positive share price reaction warranted.

Consensus is too bearish for '25e

Minor adjustments - Q3 net rate and volume pre-announced. ABGSCe 26% above cons. for '25e EBITDA. TP increased to NOK 140 (133) – BUY reiterated.

ATH net rates, "No sign of weaknesses"

Net rates of USD 80.5/CBM in September, up 2.9% from August. ~4% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'23e, 11% upside to FY'24e. Share price up 1-2% today.

Norway: Best ideas Q3'23

Best ideas are MOWI, ORK, STB, BRG, FRO, ELMERA, TGS, VÅR and ZAP

Net rates of USD 78.2/CBM in August, up 0.6% from July

Net rates of USD 78.2/CBM in August, up 0.6% from July. ~4% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'23e, 1% upside to FY'23e. Share price flat vs. peers today.

Q2 beat, "Q3 to be another strong quarter"

Adj. EBITDA USD 181m (ABGSC 175, cons 169m). "Financially we expect Q3 to be another strong quarter". Positive share price reaction warranted.

~15% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'23e

Net rates of USD 77.7/CBM in July, up 5.4% from June. ~15% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'23e, 11% upside to FY'23e. Share price up 3-5% today.

Declares four options and receives four more

More focus on NAV

Global car export update, up 32% YTD (May). ABGSCe 18% above cons. for '24e EBITDA. TP trimmed to NOK 122 (123) – BUY reiterated.