Heads-up for report 26 April

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

Good Q1, but top-down case largely behind

Q1 results due on 26 April at 08:00 CET. We expect org. sales growth of -4%, adj. EBIT margin 13.4% (13.1%). Re-rating has mostly completed - recently down to HOLD.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

Cyclical re-rating largely played out

Strong re-rating since mid-'23 along with bottoming PMIs. More evidence of structural change needed to break out of range. Down to HOLD (Buy) with TP of SEK 245 (230).

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

Schaeffler sees '24 growth for Industrial

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

Capital Goods: Post-Q4 Update

Outside of construction, most end-markets were solid, pricing and margins held up, and cash flow was strong. We think Alfa Laval, SKF and Volvo look attractive in H1’24.

Timken lags and guides cautiously; PMI's say we're almost through

Not the cleanest, but progress nonetheless

Good margin progress (...if excluding SEK 1bn of "XO cost"). Adj. EBIT'24-25e +4%, reported EPS unchanged. Still some top-down support, and hopes of internal progress too.

Price vs cost still positive, adj. EBIT 7% above

Heads-up for report 31 January

Q4e: Some cyclical upside realised, some left

Earnings hold up on big backlogs; PMIs have turned, but only slowly. Meanwhile, stocks have bounced, multiples back to normal. We favour Alfa Laval, Epiroc, Metso, SKF and Volvo.

Re-rating underway but not complete

Q4 results due on 31 January at 08:00 CET. We expect org. sales growth of -4%, adj. EBIT margin 11.0% (10.0%). Re-rating half-way, but not done - keep BUY.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – January 2024

Our key long ideas are:Alfa Laval, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on:Autoliv, Kone,Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2023

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Epiroc, Kone, Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - November 2023

Our key long ideas are Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on Autoliv, Epiroc, Wärtsilä.

Capital Goods: Q3 trends, ests., valuation, top picks

Q3 again showed stronger margins, but slightly lower orders. Aggregate adj. EBIT’23-25 was unchanged. Sandvik, SKF and Volvo are top picks.