Tough Q1, but improvements coming

Soft Q1e, but we expect improvements from Q2 and onwards, turning to strong H2'24e figures after Penn online comps are gone. BUY: asymmetric risk-reward on 8-4x clean '25e-26e EV/EBITA.

Slower US handle growth

Reset

Significant estimate cuts on weak guidance. Share likely to remain pressured before proof of improvements. Maintain BUY on strong long-term valuation support.

'24 sales guidance well below expectations

Implications from Kindred's received offer

Weather the storm and be rewarded

Expect a weak Q4, marking the y-o-y low point. Clean EBITA downgrades mainly on Brazil timing and competition. Keep BUY – asymmetric risk-reward on >10x clean '24e EV/EBITA.

US handle remains solid, weak SB margin

Updated US customers' handle ex. Penn looks solid in Nov. Low US sportsbook margin in Oct and Nov is weighing on GGR.

CEO resigns and is proposed to the board

US handle growth keeps accelerating

Updated US customers' handle ex. Penn looks strong in Oct. Low US sportsbook margin in Oct explained by RSI in MI & NY. Note weak Kindred Oct trading update and postponed bill in Brazil.

Stay patient for the appealing setup

Q3 sales ex. one-offs were in line with our expectations. Better costs and great signings, '24e-'25e adj. EBITA up 9-22%. Estimates de-risked, '24e EV/EBITA adj. at 9x - BUY.

Growing through the Penn migration

US Q3 handle growth accelerating ex. Penn

A quarter to look past

Expect a soft Q3; Bally's not yet offsetting Penn migration. We trim '23e adj. EBITA on lower sales, but '24e-'25e largely unchanged. Share under significant pressure despite attractive signings — BUY, TP SEK 285.

Updated Brazil contribution potential

Time to offset the Penn migration

Solid Q2, adj. EBITA almost doubled y-o-y. Reassuring outlook - we make limited estimate changes. Great H2 setup despite Penn dropping off - BUY.

Strong SB margin, softer turnover

Keep track of the (many) moving parts

Expect a decent Q2 despite weak Penn figures. We lower '23e adj. EBITA significantly but raise '24e-'25e. High underlying growth offsets Penn and Kindred migrations. BUY.

Share drop of 13% unwarranted

We think the soft Q1 sales are explained by Penn, which does not change the investment case. Kindred's strategic review could even be positive: BUY.

16% cons beat on adj. EBIT but soft top line

Appealing set-up hit by Penn

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