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Dustin Group AB: 1 director

A director at Dustin Group AB bought 6,700,000 shares at 13.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Entering a slower growth period

We expect negative organic growth in SMB ahead Adj. EBITA mixed post-Q4 beat, leverage remains high We do not struggle with valuation, but with timing: HOLD

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Better than feared, share should recover

Adj. EBITA -12% y-o-y, but +10% vs cons CEO leaves to become CEO of the largest owner Estimates up 4-6% and share +5% post weakness

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Entering a negative adj. EBITA growth period

We estimate -22% adj. EBITA growth y-o-y in Q4’21/22e Dividend could surprise negatively, given high leverage Risk/reward remains negative, but ATL valuation; HOLD

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Estimates continue down

Good growth in Q3 but margins continued to slide Risk of negative earnings growth in Q4e… …and leverage remains high, stick to HOLD, TP 60 (70)

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Risk on the downside, but valuation reflects it

Demand weakening, supply chain disruptions Margins under pressure, FCF and BS limits larger M&A Valuation is the only reason for HOLD, TP SEK 70 (85)

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - A margin hiccup in Q2

12% organic growth, but mix caused margin miss Adj. EBITA -6% vs cons drives negative revisions (3-5%) Share neutral to slightly soft today

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Strong demand the theme of the year

Well-positioned and efficient delivery in Q1 Organic growth to remain solid near-term (~10%) Reiterate HOLD at 14.0x ‘21/’22e EV/adj. EBITA

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Strong market favours the large players

11% organic growth (cons 9%), 5% EBITA beat vs cons Margins in line, leverage high at 3.1x ND/EBITDA R12m Estimates up 2-3%, share similarly today

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Favourable market conditions for Dustin

Strong IT demand, tough sourcing for small competitors Hardware margins likely peaking at present Good earnings growth already priced in; HOLD

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - A perfect storm

Strong demand, smart supply chain navigation Favourable market dynamics to persist in the short term Adj. EBITA up 2-5%, reiterate HOLD

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Ending ’20/’21 on a high note

21% organic growth (broad based) and margin beat Adj. EBITA 17% vs cons and DPS 44% vs cons Share up 10% today on the back of recent weakness

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Lots of moving parts in Q4e

Strong demand, but supply chain challenges persist First quarter with Centralpoint, adds 61% to sales Stretched balance sheet, we est. lowered DPS; HOLD

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Hardware demand drives growth

Component shortage and weak cash flow to normalise Equity issue coming up in H2 Limited estimate revisions, keep HOLD, TP SEK 105

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - In line organic growth and margins in Q3

Q3 adj. EBITA +1% vs cons Supply chain shortage has filled the order book Small positive (1-2%) estimate revisions, neutral share

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Value-accretive acquisition, but not a bargain

Good Q2 report with 11% adj. EBITA beat vs. consensus Value-accretive acquisition, we raise our estimates Reiterate HOLD, new TP of SEK 105 (77)

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Q2 beat, enhanced presence in Benelux

Adj. EBITA +31% y-o-y, 11% vs. cons. New acquisition strengthens its presence in Benelux 5-10% share price reaction warranted

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Another quarter of solid EBITA growth

Q2 ‘20/’21 report due 13 April ABGSCe: 4% org. sales growth, 18% adj. EBITA y-o-y HOLD reiterated – TP up to SEK 77 (72)

Adam Karlsson ... (+4)
  • Adam Karlsson
  • Casper Blom
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Talking Points - SynAct Pharma: A New (Year’s) Resolution on Inflammat...

Big potential in rheumatoid arthritis and beyond We initiate with BUY and TP of SEK 72

Daniel Thorsson ... (+2)
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Dustin - Better sentiment as earnings growth returns

Positive revisions amid earnings beat, adj. EBITA +3-7% Entering a period of easier comps and lower costs Reiterate HOLD, new TP of SEK 72 (65)

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