Renewable Weekly – 15 May 2024

This week, we take a preliminary look at Vestas' Q2 announced order intake quarter to date.

Down to HOLD after SEK 60 offer

EQT Infrastructure Fund VI offers SEK 60 per share. Conditional on >50% acceptance, ~46% already supportive. Despite a low price, we think the offer will go through, down to HOLD.

Renewable Weekly – 8 May 2024

This week, we look at key takeaways from GWEC's 2024 Global Wind Report.

Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

Strong sales outlook

Weak Q1, but increased sales pipeline. More transparency on near-term project sales. Reiterate BUY, project sales the key catalyst for re-rating.

Boosting the ongoing sales pipeline

Slow start, but outlook should remain positive

Q1'24 report due on 25 April at 8.00 CET. Q1e: EBIT ~break-even, positive outlook on project sales to remain. Maintain BUY with TP of SEK 100.

Renewable Weekly – 22 April 2024

This week, we're taking a closer look at Ørsted. Despite challenges in the last few years, we now argue Ørsted is back on the right path. We rate the stock a BUY, and set a 12-month TP of DKK 450/sh.

Heads-up for report 26 April

Back on the right path

Q1e EBITDA up 9% y-o-y on increased offshore capacity. Fundamentals improving, good growth visibility near-term. P/NAV ~1.03x, but ~35% upside if mgmt . delivers on 2026 targets.

NY pulls 4GW offshore wind on GE turbine downsizing

Underlying performance highlights challenges

Revenues 39% below cons and softer underlying EBITDA. Backlog down 14% y-o-y is not great for a growth case. In need of volumes - HOLD.

Renewable Weekly – 12 April 2024

This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.

Still room for more

Q1e: ~11% above Bloomberg cons. Set for moderate growth & asset sales to deleverage. P/core NAV 1.09x, but upside to growth & transaction pricing - BUY.

Muted Q1 coming up

We expect Q1e EBITA of NOK 202m, -40% vs. post-Q4 cons. '26e down 10% on expected UK DRS delay. Limited upside at current pricing - HOLD.

Terminating coverage

ABGSC ceases coverage of Biokraft International. BUY is our final recommendation. SEK 28 is our final target price.

Renewable Weekly – 4 April 2024

This week, we take a look at cost developments in the offshore wind supply chain.

Hard to see positive near-term triggers

Q1e: we expect adj. EBIT of EUR 3m, -93% vs. cons. EUR 40m. We cut '25e and '26e adj. EBIT ests by 9-11% on lower orders. '24e P/E 41.2x vs. historical 12m fwd range of 15-20x – HOLD.

Muted order intake in Q1

Renewable Weekly – 27 March 2024

Of our basket of 41 stocks, returns were positive for 33 and negative for 8 over the week. Median performance 4.1%, average 9.9%. Sub-sectors: Wind (3%), Solar (7%), Hydrogen (7%), Cleantech/other (2%).